Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 20 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

20 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 3.5¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

-$494.91

Smart Money Entry

2.7¢ → 3.5¢

+30% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 22 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares579,624

Combined PnL-$497.62

No2 traders

Total Value$130.21

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$2.71

Yes — 91%No — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

224 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 90% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$2.7K	$4.8K	+$2.1K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$29.0K	$4.1K	$-7.7K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.7K	$4.1K	+$1.7K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$524.29	$2.5K	+$2.0K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$19.7	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$599.8	$906.07	+$306.28	54% 325-279 (604)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$513.05	$738.34	+$225.29	82% 945-201 (1146)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$434.07	$643.07	+$170.22	41% 648-925 (1573)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$250	$355	+$105	63% 217-127 (344)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$232.78	$232.78	+$181.55	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$45.02	$204.92	+$159.82	47% 83-94 (177)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$201.45	$174.25	-$5.28	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$118.25	+$118.25	26% 351-985 (1336)
RD rdba<$100	Noavg 96¢	$96	$96.45	+$0.45	60% 131-88 (219)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.44	$70.99	+$12.84	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$29.45	$65.75	+$36.29	68% 2074-957 (3031)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$64.97	$64.71	-$0.26	68% 56-26 (82)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$43.52	$61.8	+$18.28	57% 51-39 (90)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$53.25	+$47.34	58% 1153-825 (1978)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$32.69	$44.63	+$11.94	65% 1075-583 (1658)
AL Albert 1953<$100	Noavg 90¢	$31.5	$33.76	+$2.26	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.81	$10.55	+$8.74	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,693.43

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$29,003.45

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,655.23

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$524.29

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,378.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$19.7

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$599.8

Value

$906.07

PnL

+$306.28

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$513.05

Value

$738.34

PnL

+$225.29

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$434.07

Value

$643.07

PnL

+$170.22

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$355

PnL

+$105

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$232.78

Value

$232.78

PnL

+$181.55

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$45.02

Value

$204.92

PnL

+$159.82

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.45

Value

$174.25

PnL

-$5.28

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$118.25

PnL

+$118.25

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

rdba<$100

Invested

$96

Value

$96.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$70.99

PnL

+$12.84

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.45

Value

$65.75

PnL

+$36.29

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.97

Value

$64.71

PnL

-$0.26

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.52

Value

$61.8

PnL

+$18.28

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$53.25

PnL

+$47.34

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.69

Value

$44.63

PnL

+$11.94

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Albert 1953<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$33.76

PnL

+$2.26

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$8.74

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 22 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

224 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 90% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2016.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

2117.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.