Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 31 of 31 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals?
31 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $142 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
31
Yes 100%
$142.34
$-5.8K
2¢ → 0.1¢
-98% since entry · 31 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
31 of 31 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)31 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
31 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Late
519h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gucky-45CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.0K | $35.07 | -$966.92 | — 0-7 (7) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $1.0K | $30.07 | $-1.0K | — 0-3 (3) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $606.43 | $10.92 | -$595.51 | 0% 0-296 (296) |
 BaddieCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $226.77 | $7.94 | -$218.84 | 0% 0-46 (46) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $426.74 | $7.69 | -$419.05 | — |
DO donthackmeCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $392.75 | $7.07 | -$385.68 | — 4-3 (7) |
 HOG993CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $151.35 | $5.3 | -$146.05 | — 0-2 (2) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.7K | $5.26 | -$352.42 | 39% 179-277 (456) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $281.03 | $5.06 | -$275.97 | 81% 65-15 (80) |
DG DG-NOCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $128.57 | $4.5 | -$124.07 | — 0-3 (3) |
AH aHjCzCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $195.67 | $3.52 | -$192.15 | 33% 210-420 (630) |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $119.49 | $2.2 | -$117.29 | 0% 0-93 (93) |
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $111.35 | $2 | -$109.34 | — 0-3 (3) |
MI mildwindow27CTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $100.48 | $1.71 | -$93.07 | 8% 3-37 (40) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $89.79 | $1.62 | -$88.18 | 0% 0-457 (457) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $87.5 | $1.6 | -$85.9 | 77% 44-13 (57) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $87.86 | $1.58 | -$86.28 | 0% 0-116 (116) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $74.13 | $1.41 | -$72.73 | — 1-11 (12) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $64.96 | $1.17 | -$63.79 | 0% 0-394 (394) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $64.47 | $1.16 | -$63.31 | 0% 0-528 (528) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $63.82 | $1.15 | -$62.67 | 0% 0-528 (528) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $61.59 | $1.11 | -$60.49 | 0% 0-438 (438) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $58.5 | $1.05 | -$57.45 | 0% 0-495 (495) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $23.77 | $0.43 | -$23.35 | — 0-5 (5) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $22.54 | $0.41 | -$22.13 | 15% 123-693 (816) |
Gucky-45CTRInvested
$1,001.99
Value
$35.07
PnL
-$966.92
Record
—
0-7 (7)
Invested
$1,039.86
Value
$30.07
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$606.43
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$595.51
Record
0%
0-296 (296)
BaddieCTRInvested
$226.77
Value
$7.94
PnL
-$218.84
Record
0%
0-46 (46)
Invested
$426.74
Value
$7.69
PnL
-$419.05
Record
—
Invested
$392.75
Value
$7.07
PnL
-$385.68
Record
—
4-3 (7)
HOG993CTRInvested
$151.35
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$146.05
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$1,672.56
Value
$5.26
PnL
-$352.42
Record
39%
179-277 (456)
Invested
$281.03
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$275.97
Record
81%
65-15 (80)
Invested
$128.57
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$124.07
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$195.67
Value
$3.52
PnL
-$192.15
Record
33%
210-420 (630)
Invested
$119.49
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$117.29
Record
0%
0-93 (93)
Invested
$111.35
Value
$2
PnL
-$109.34
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$100.48
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$93.07
Record
8%
3-37 (40)
Invested
$89.79
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$88.18
Record
0%
0-457 (457)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$87.5
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$85.9
Record
77%
44-13 (57)
Invested
$87.86
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$86.28
Record
0%
0-116 (116)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$74.13
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$72.73
Record
—
1-11 (12)
Invested
$64.96
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$63.79
Record
0%
0-394 (394)
Invested
$64.47
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$63.31
Record
0%
0-528 (528)
Invested
$63.82
Value
$1.15
PnL
-$62.67
Record
0%
0-528 (528)
Invested
$61.59
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$60.49
Record
0%
0-438 (438)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$57.45
Record
0%
0-495 (495)
Invested
$23.77
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$23.35
Record
—
0-5 (5)
Invested
$22.54
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$22.13
Record
15%
123-693 (816)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Gucky-45
CTRYes — $35.07
rainbowlilies
CTRYes — $30.07
forgotmydinner
CTRYes — $10.92
Baddie
CTRYes — $7.94
MenacingTurtle
CTRYes — $7.69
donthackme
CTRYes — $7.07
HOG993
CTRYes — $5.3
e46m3
CTRYes — $5.26
qwen300.fund
CTRYes — $5.06
DG-NO
CTRYes — $4.5