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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Contestable-ParfaitRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)62% (16–10, n=26)48% (12778–13831, n=26609)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$170K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #158PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus70% (112 of 159 open)64% (88 of 138 open)71% (58 of 82 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won100% of 26 at avg 86¢, ROI −14%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢4% (won 100% of 1)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢12% (won 100% of 3)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 100% of 1)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up81% (won 100% of 21)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

9 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketContestable-ParfaitRN1BreakTheBank
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $255—No $411K
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
—Steelers $51Browns $300K
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
—Steelers $3.4KBrowns $259K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
—Jets $255Raiders $105K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $266—No $88K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $962—Yes $71K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $22K—Yes $38K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $16K—No $35K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $15K—Yes $28K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $21K—No $16K
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cardinals
—Cowboys $23Cardinals $32K
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
—Buccaneers $39Falcons $8.6K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $611Cardinals $2.7K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $23K—Yes $274K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $5.8K—No $215K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $32K—Yes $172K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $147—No $202K
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $3.2K—Yes $83K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $134—Yes $85K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $22K—No $40K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3.8K—Yes $51K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $314—Yes $943