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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Contestable-Parfait | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 60% (15–10, n=25) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $170K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #158 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 72% (114 of 159 open) | 62% (91 of 146 open) | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 62% (18 of 29 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 26 at avg 86¢, ROI −14% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 100% of 3) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 81% (won 100% of 21) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
29 on the same side, 24 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Contestable-Parfait | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $255 | — | No $411K | — |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $5.5K | Browns $255K | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Jets $192 | Raiders $171K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $262 | — | No $90K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $979 | — | Yes $71K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $11K | Cardinals $59K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $23K | — | Yes $37K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $51K | Ravens $696 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $16K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $16K | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $21K | — | No $18K | — |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $937 | — | No $24K | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $400 | Raiders $17K | — |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Buccaneers $1.9K | Falcons $8.6K | — |
| Falcons vs. Buccaneers opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $1.8K | — | Buccaneers $4.3K |
| Spread: Bills (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Ravens $847 | — | Bills $4.5K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cowboys $1.4K | Cardinals $3.0K | — |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $591 | — | Buccaneers $2.0K |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $2.1K | Ravens $376 |
| Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $1.0K | — | Under $1.2K |
| Spread: Raiders (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $2.1K | — | Raiders $138 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $321 | — | Buccaneers $1.6K |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 58.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $1.6K | — | Under $65 |
| Spread: Steelers (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $211 | — | Browns $471 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $23K | — | Yes $272K | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $3.0K | — | No $214K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $33K | — | Yes $169K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $147 | — | No $184K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $2.3K | Raiders $104K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $3.3K | — | Yes $82K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $134 | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $22K | — | No $40K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.8K | — | Yes $51K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $76 | — | Yes $38K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) same side · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $714 | Cardinals $35K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $1.1K | Raiders $24K | — |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $643 | Jaguars $20K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $17K | — | No $590 | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $11K | — | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $4.8K | — | No $6.4K | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 64.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $6.9K | — | Under $2.8K |
| Spread: Bills (-7.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $1.5K | — | Bills $4.8K |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $4.2K | — | No $747 | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $71 | — | Yes $4.6K | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $1.9K | — | Over $1.1K |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5) same side · consensus Falcons | — | Buccaneers $1.3K | — | Buccaneers $1.5K |
| Spread: Bills (-10.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $1.7K | — | Bills $988 |
| Spread: Jaguars (-14.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $1.8K | — | Jaguars $4 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5) same side · consensus Buccaneers | — | Buccaneers $90 | — | Buccaneers $1.5K |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $314 | — | Yes $943 | — |