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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| StudyPrediction | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4359–3146, n=7505) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $51K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #1000 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (26 of 35 open) | 58% (85 of 146 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 61% (20 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=82 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 6575 at avg 51¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 13% of 1875) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 22% (won 47% of 1468) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 65% of 1105) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 93% of 2127) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
10 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | StudyPrediction | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $18K | — | Ravens $696 |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $7.0K | — | Under $1.8K |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Falcons | — | Falcons $2.7K | — | Buccaneers $3.0K |
| Spread: Bills (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Ravens $647 | — | Bills $4.5K |
| Spread: Bills (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Bills | — | Bills $4.0K | — | Ravens $295 |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $1.3K | — | Under $2.1K |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $2.7K | — | Jets $284 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | — | Cardinals $1.1K |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $2.2K | — | Over $8 |
| Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $902 | — | Under $1.2K |
| Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 48.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $1.0K | — | Under $17 |
| Spread: Steelers (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $225 | — | Browns $471 |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 58.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $434 | — | Under $65 |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $22K | — | Bills $395 |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 64.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $9.2K | — | Under $2.8K |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $7.2K | — | Under $261 |
| Spread: Bills (-10.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $4.0K | — | Bills $2.7K |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $4.8K | — | Under $575 |
| Spread: Steelers (-6.5) same side · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $4.7K | — | Steelers $156 |
| Spread: Bills (-17.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $2.5K | — | Bills $282 |
| Spread: Jaguars (-14.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $2.5K | — | Jaguars $4 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-4.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $629 | — | Cardinals $1.0K |
| Spread: Bills (-16.5) same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $93 | — | Bills $662 |