Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 45%
2 arb excluded
$11.1K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 20 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Up | $7.6K | $7.6K | +$430.71 | 56% 3698-2861 (6559) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 49.9¢ | $2.0K | — | $-2.0K | 56% 14924-11728 (26652) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 54.8¢ | $820.79 | $908.17 | +$87.38 | 50% 5585-5650 (11235) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $231.9 | $529.54 | +$297.64 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 65¢ | $326.13 | $501.97 | +$175.84 | 58% 38498-27579 (66077) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.1¢ | $399.9 | $412 | +$12.1 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 40.5¢ | $210.34 | $377.49 | +$168.5 | 55% 7793-6374 (14167) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 70.9¢ | $507.59 | — | -$507.59 | 60% 12586-8357 (20943) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $179.95 | $217.11 | +$37.16 | 55% 8967-7399 (16366) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.2¢ | $56.83 | $217.11 | +$160.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.5¢ | $123.12 | — | -$123.12 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $127.44 | $126.19 | -$1.25 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $120.57 | $121 | +$0.43 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.3¢ | $47.57 | $121 | +$73.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72¢ | $73 | — | -$73 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.7¢ | $66.56 | — | -$66.56 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $62.24 | — | -$62.24 | 55% 24178-19509 (43687) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 9.7¢ | $20.53 | $212.49 | +$191.96 | 46% 38677-45770 (84447) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $46.66 | — | -$46.66 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $43.88 | $34 | -$9.88 | 65% 4332-2383 (6715) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $19.5 | — | -$19.5 | 35% 19121-36132 (55253) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $29.93 | — | -$29.93 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $61.39 | — | -$61.39 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $18.02 | — | -$18.02 | 65% 112572-59423 (171995) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $22.09 | — | -$22.09 | 74% 103044-36553 (139597) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $51.83 | — | -$42.23 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
Invested
$7,647.67
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$430.71
Record
56%
3698-2861 (6559)
Invested
$2,031.35
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
56%
14924-11728 (26652)
Invested
$820.79
Value
$908.17
PnL
+$87.38
Record
50%
5585-5650 (11235)
Invested
$231.9
Value
$529.54
PnL
+$297.64
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$326.13
Value
$501.97
PnL
+$175.84
Record
58%
38498-27579 (66077)
Invested
$399.9
Value
$412
PnL
+$12.1
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
Invested
$210.34
Value
$377.49
PnL
+$168.5
Record
55%
7793-6374 (14167)
Invested
$507.59
Value
—
PnL
-$507.59
Record
60%
12586-8357 (20943)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$179.95
Value
$217.11
PnL
+$37.16
Record
55%
8967-7399 (16366)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.44
Value
$126.19
PnL
-$1.25
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
Invested
$120.57
Value
$121
PnL
+$0.43
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.56
Value
—
PnL
-$66.56
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
Invested
$62.24
Value
—
PnL
-$62.24
Record
55%
24178-19509 (43687)
pspspsps5Invested
$20.53
Value
$212.49
PnL
+$191.96
Record
46%
38677-45770 (84447)
Invested
$46.66
Value
—
PnL
-$46.66
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$43.88
Value
$34
PnL
-$9.88
Record
65%
4332-2383 (6715)
Invested
$19.5
Value
—
PnL
-$19.5
Record
35%
19121-36132 (55253)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$29.93
Value
—
PnL
-$29.93
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$61.39
Value
—
PnL
-$61.39
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
Invested
$18.02
Value
—
PnL
-$18.02
Record
65%
112572-59423 (171995)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$22.09
Value
—
PnL
-$22.09
Record
74%
103044-36553 (139597)
Invested
$51.83
Value
—
PnL
-$42.23
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $7.6K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $908.17
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $529.54
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $501.97
hoodquant
Up — $412
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $377.49
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $126.19