Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)

19 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (59%) · Miami (OH) at 79¢ · $143K held · ended Nov 4

Buffalo22¢Miami (OH)78¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (OH)

Consensus Traders

Miami (OH) 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$142.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 78.5¢

-1% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

19 of 32 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buffalo22%

Miami (OH)79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)19 traders

Total Value$126.8K

Total Shares146,046

Combined PnL+$60.37

Buffalo13 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares23,004

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Miami (OH) — 59%Buffalo — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiami (OH) 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpBuffalo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBuffalo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Miami (OH)avg 78.5¢	$59.7K	$61.1K	+$1.4K	48% 276-299 (575)
65 6512395314597884	Miami (OH)avg 76.1¢	$17.5K	$17.2K	-$345.6	51% 4525-4389 (8914)
CUTJALENHURTS	Miami (OH)avg 85.4¢	$17.1K	$15.9K	$-1.2K	52% 5927-5529 (11456)
RN1	Miami (OH)avg 78.3¢	$12.7K	$12.6K	-$97.39	53% 59145-51446 (110591)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Miami (OH)avg 77¢	$8.5K	$5.9K	-$39.23	47% 14435-15957 (30392)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 77¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$181.47
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 25.8¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$220.7
TO torta.tech	Miami (OH)avg 82.1¢	$5.2K	$5.0K	-$161.81	62% 8410-5197 (13607)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Miami (OH)avg 78.7¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$37.72	54% 1304-1107 (2411)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Buffaloavg 31¢	$4.6K	$3.4K	$-1.3K	54% 17767-14928 (32695)
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 31¢	$3.9K	$2.6K	$-1.3K
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 68¢	$667	$779.8	+$4.9
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Buffaloavg 29.5¢	$4.6K	$3.2K	$-1.4K	46% 405-475 (880)
ET ethanaz	Miami (OH)avg 71.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$228.45	49% 690-713 (1403)
SE sentrio	Miami (OH)avg 69¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$258.16	50% 25280-24984 (50264)
CM cm2897	Miami (OH)avg 85.4¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$138.76	51% 2083-1999 (4082)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Miami (OH)avg 77.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$22.92	43% 298-400 (698)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Miami (OH)avg 74.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$3.28	52% 14146-12910 (27056)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 74.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$63.58
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 24.5¢	$548.59	$481.73	-$66.86
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Miami (OH)avg 82.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$58.57	56% 7565-5995 (13560)
ST stackingsats	Miami (OH)avg 69¢	$590.09	$679.89	+$89.8	48% 347-374 (721)
BI BillBenter2026	Miami (OH)avg 79.2¢	$621.88	$595.59	-$26.28	57% 19004-14063 (33067)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Miami (OH)avg 70¢	$280	$318	+$38	51% 1727-1652 (3379)
nigiri99CTR	Buffaloavg 32¢	$316.87	$317.12	-$4.7	46% 8263-9657 (17920)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Buffaloavg 30.7¢	$456.59	$304.47	-$152.12	51% 3572-3496 (7068)
PR primmCTR	Buffaloavg 30¢	$411.45	$281.16	-$130.29	46% 1196-1386 (2582)
IC ic4creamCTR	Buffaloavg 30.6¢	$329.58	$220.58	-$109	58% 2688-1981 (4669)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Buffaloavg 15.4¢	$153.83	$205	+$51.18	57% 617-474 (1091)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Buffaloavg 15.4¢	$144.21	$192.19	+$47.98	53% 531-469 (1000)
TO topdogbigboi	Miami (OH)avg 76¢	$177	$178.5	+$1.5	47% 10621-11901 (22522)

Multicoloured-Serf

Miami (OH)

Invested

$59,704.23

Value

$61.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

6512395314597884

Miami (OH)

Invested

$17,548.64

Value

$17.2K

PnL

-$345.6

Record

51%

4525-4389 (8914)

CUTJALENHURTS

Miami (OH)

Invested

$17,076.5

Value

$15.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

52%

5927-5529 (11456)

RN1

Miami (OH)

Invested

$12,727.3

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$97.39

Record

53%

59145-51446 (110591)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$8,517.81

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$39.23

Record

47%

14435-15957 (30392)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$4,578.6977¢+$181.47

Buffalo$1,478.4125.8¢-$220.7

torta.tech

Miami (OH)

Invested

$5,163.15

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$161.81

Record

62%

8410-5197 (13607)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Miami (OH)

Invested

$3,647.14

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$37.72

Record

54%

1304-1107 (2411)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$4,608.11

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

17767-14928 (32695)

Both legs:

Buffalo$3,941.1131¢$-1.3K

Miami (OH)$66768¢+$4.9

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$4,571.01

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

46%

405-475 (880)

ethanaz

Miami (OH)

Invested

$2,075.65

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$228.45

Record

49%

690-713 (1403)

sentrio

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,696.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$258.16

Record

50%

25280-24984 (50264)

cm2897

Miami (OH)

Invested

$2,020.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$138.76

Record

51%

2083-1999 (4082)

ENDBOSSLLC

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,722.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$22.92

Record

43%

298-400 (698)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,634.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$3.28

Record

52%

14146-12910 (27056)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$1,086.474.2¢+$63.58

Buffalo$548.5924.5¢-$66.86

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,416.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$58.57

Record

56%

7565-5995 (13560)

stackingsats

Miami (OH)

Invested

$590.09

Value

$679.89

PnL

+$89.8

Record

48%

347-374 (721)

BillBenter2026

Miami (OH)

Invested

$621.88

Value

$595.59

PnL

-$26.28

Record

57%

19004-14063 (33067)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Miami (OH)

Invested

$280

Value

$318

PnL

+$38

Record

51%

1727-1652 (3379)

nigiri99CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$316.87

Value

$317.12

PnL

-$4.7

Record

46%

8263-9657 (17920)

HerdoniaCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$456.59

Value

$304.47

PnL

-$152.12

Record

51%

3572-3496 (7068)

primmCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$411.45

Value

$281.16

PnL

-$130.29

Record

46%

1196-1386 (2582)

ic4creamCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$329.58

Value

$220.58

PnL

-$109

Record

58%

2688-1981 (4669)

averagejoetradersCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$153.83

Value

$205

PnL

+$51.18

Record

57%

617-474 (1091)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$144.21

Value

$192.19

PnL

+$47.98

Record

53%

531-469 (1000)

topdogbigboi

Miami (OH)

Invested

$177

Value

$178.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

10621-11901 (22522)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

19 of 32 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiami (OH) 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpBuffalo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBuffalo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (OH) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.