South Florida vs. East Carolina

21 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina (58%) · East Carolina at 57¢ · $367K held · ended Nov 7

South Florida43¢East Carolina57¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

East Carolina

Consensus Traders

East Carolina 58%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$366.7K

Combined PnL

$63.0K

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 57.5¢

+57% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralEast Carolina at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina

21 of 36 top traders (58%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Florida43%

East Carolina57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Carolina21 traders

Total Value$176.1K

Total Shares212,771

Combined PnL+$65.2K

South Florida15 traders

Total Value$40.2K

Total Shares68,572

Combined PnL$-2.3K

East Carolina — 58%South Florida — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	East Carolinaavg 33.9¢	$87.8K	$149.2K	+$61.4K	47% 369-419 (788)
ET ethanazARB<$100	South Floridaavg 61.3¢	$76.7K	$43.5K	$-33.1K	49% 723-751 (1474)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 75.6¢	$26.3K	$28.3K	+$2.1K
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 61.3¢	$50.4K	$15.2K	$-35.2K
TA TAIWANNUMBERONEARB<$100	South Floridaavg 70.2¢	$58.8K	$30.1K	$-28.8K	54% 1370-1186 (2556)
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 70.2¢	$47.5K	$19.9K	$-27.5K
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 79¢	$11.3K	$10.1K	$-1.2K
RN1ARB<$100	East Carolinaavg 40.3¢	$22.9K	$26.7K	+$3.8K	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 40.3¢	$12.1K	$19.1K	+$7.0K
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 51.6¢	$10.8K	$7.6K	$-3.2K
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	South Floridaavg 67.7¢	$17.6K	$20.2K	+$2.6K	52% 6159-5780 (11939)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	South Floridaavg 39.2¢	$14.7K	$14.0K	+$1.6K	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 46.9¢	$6.2K	$10.0K	+$4.5K
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 39.2¢	$6.3K	$3.9K	$-2.9K
CM cm2897ARB<$100	East Carolinaavg 67.9¢	$15.7K	$13.1K	$-2.6K	51% 2192-2133 (4325)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 67.9¢	$8.1K	$9.9K	+$1.7K
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 41.5¢	$7.6K	$3.2K	$-4.4K
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	East Carolinaavg 34.5¢	$4.1K	$8.5K	+$4.3K	46% 517-596 (1113)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	East Carolinaavg 48.7¢	$7.3K	$7.1K	-$186.14	53% 6300-5583 (11883)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	East Carolinaavg 49.9¢	$7.4K	$6.2K	+$729.34	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 49.9¢	$3.2K	$4.6K	+$1.1K
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 37.3¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$412.71
ST stackingsatsCTR	South Floridaavg 52.2¢	$10.4K	$4.9K	$-6.5K	48% 356-386 (742)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	South Floridaavg 46.8¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$224.78	42% 8093-11300 (19393)
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 46.8¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$831.2
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 35.8¢	$798.17	$1.4K	+$606.42
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	East Carolinaavg 51¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$237.31	52% 14617-13288 (27905)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	South Floridaavg 64.4¢	$5.2K	$4.3K	-$890.28	53% 12220-10730 (22950)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 36.7¢	$1.3K	$2.5K	+$1.2K
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 64.4¢	$3.9K	$1.8K	$-2.1K
LI lightotunnel35CTR	South Floridaavg 73.6¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$197.03	60% 100-67 (167)
HI hi774cCTR	South Floridaavg 48¢	$2.7K	$3.6K	+$901.98	46% 5267-6109 (11376)
EN ENDBOSSLLCARB<$100	South Floridaavg 73.6¢	$4.8K	$3.1K	$-1.8K	43% 322-421 (743)
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 73.6¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	$-1.5K
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 72.2¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$253.8
BI biying88888ARB<$100	South Floridaavg 57.2¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$654.92	89% 116-15 (131)
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 57.2¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	$-1.2K
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 33.8¢	$517.13	$1.1K	+$545.52
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	East Carolinaavg 61.3¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$30.51	57% 19409-14357 (33766)
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 61.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$343.06
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 39.9¢	$857.54	$483.98	-$373.57
VeryLucky888CTR	South Floridaavg 47.7¢	$3.2K	$1.9K	+$424.33	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
0X 0xfFFF6537	East Carolinaavg 36.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$1.1K	49% 1132-1172 (2304)
betdgeCTR	South Floridaavg 64.7¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$275.4	49% 1237-1275 (2512)
PU purplegattoCTR	South Floridaavg 45.7¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$179.49	49% 6360-6522 (12882)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	East Carolinaavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$98	55% 3744-3059 (6803)
BA bands1	East Carolinaavg 51¢	$1.5K	$820.41	-$711.02	49% 414-427 (841)

Multicoloured-Serf

East Carolina

Invested

$87,769.18

Value

$149.2K

PnL

+$61.4K

Record

47%

369-419 (788)

ethanazARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$76,659.8

Value

$43.5K

PnL

$-33.1K

Record

49%

723-751 (1474)

Both legs:

East Carolina$26,251.3575.6¢+$2.1K

South Florida$50,408.4561.3¢$-35.2K

TAIWANNUMBERONEARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$58,816.57

Value

$30.1K

PnL

$-28.8K

Record

54%

1370-1186 (2556)

Both legs:

South Florida$47,485.7870.2¢$-27.5K

East Carolina$11,330.7979¢$-1.2K

RN1ARB<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$22,920.58

Value

$26.7K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

Both legs:

East Carolina$12,133.4340.3¢+$7.0K

South Florida$10,787.1651.6¢$-3.2K

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

South Florida

Invested

$17,644.63

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

52%

6159-5780 (11939)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$14,650.77

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

Both legs:

East Carolina$6,239.4546.9¢+$4.5K

South Florida$6,280.6239.2¢$-2.9K

cm2897ARB<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$15,702.49

Value

$13.1K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

51%

2192-2133 (4325)

Both legs:

East Carolina$8,112.4767.9¢+$1.7K

South Florida$7,590.0241.5¢$-4.4K

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

East Carolina

Invested

$4,141.05

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

46%

517-596 (1113)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

East Carolina

Invested

$7,266.16

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$186.14

Record

53%

6300-5583 (11883)

38791873984189ARB<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$7,371.33

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$729.34

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

Both legs:

East Carolina$3,248.8149.9¢+$1.1K

South Florida$1,975.7537.3¢-$412.71

stackingsatsCTR

South Florida

Invested

$10,438.15

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

48%

356-386 (742)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$4,753.26

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$224.78

Record

42%

8093-11300 (19393)

Both legs:

South Florida$3,955.0946.8¢-$831.2

East Carolina$798.1735.8¢+$606.42

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

East Carolina

Invested

$4,193.88

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$237.31

Record

52%

14617-13288 (27905)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$5,184.77

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$890.28

Record

53%

12220-10730 (22950)

Both legs:

East Carolina$1,312.3336.7¢+$1.2K

South Florida$3,872.4464.4¢$-2.1K

lightotunnel35CTR

South Florida

Invested

$3,709.61

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$197.03

Record

60%

100-67 (167)

hi774cCTR

South Florida

Invested

$2,705.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$901.98

Record

46%

5267-6109 (11376)

ENDBOSSLLCARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$4,831.17

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

43%

322-421 (743)

Both legs:

South Florida$3,270.473.6¢$-1.5K

East Carolina$1,560.7872.2¢-$253.8

biying88888ARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$3,087.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$654.92

Record

89%

116-15 (131)

Both legs:

South Florida$2,569.8957.2¢$-1.2K

East Carolina$517.1333.8¢+$545.52

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$2,152.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$30.51

Record

57%

19409-14357 (33766)

Both legs:

East Carolina$1,295.2961.3¢+$343.06

South Florida$857.5439.9¢-$373.57

VeryLucky888CTR

South Florida

Invested

$3,158.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$424.33

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

0xfFFF6537

East Carolina

Invested

$1,691.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

49%

1132-1172 (2304)

betdgeCTR

South Florida

Invested

$1,390.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$275.4

Record

49%

1237-1275 (2512)

purplegattoCTR

South Florida

Invested

$1,196.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$179.49

Record

49%

6360-6522 (12882)

JAMJAMJAM4

East Carolina

Invested

$1,105.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$98

Record

55%

3744-3059 (6803)

bands1

East Carolina

Invested

$1,531.43

Value

$820.41

PnL

-$711.02

Record

49%

414-427 (841)

Research grade

NeutralEast Carolina at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina

21 of 36 top traders (58%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.