Kentucky vs. Tennessee

32 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Tennessee (73%) · Tennessee at 100¢ · $435K held · ended Nov 7

Kentucky<1¢Tennessee>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Tennessee 73%

Total Value

$434.7K

Combined PnL

$-17.3K

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 99.6¢

+41% since entry · 32 traders

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

32 of 44 top traders (73%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kentucky0%

Tennessee100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tennessee32 traders

Total Value$405.9K

Total Shares443,448

Combined PnL+$75.1K

Kentucky12 traders

Total Value$28.8K

Total Shares321,629

Combined PnL$-92.3K

Tennessee — 73%Kentucky — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKentucky 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTennessee 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tennessee 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanaz	Tennesseeavg 67¢	$69.5K	$78.3K	+$8.9K	49% 730-758 (1488)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Tennesseeavg 76.3¢	$57.7K	$73.0K	+$15.3K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Tennesseeavg 68.1¢	$45.1K	$62.9K	+$17.8K	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
CUTJALENHURTS	Tennesseeavg 73¢	$35.9K	$48.9K	+$13.0K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Tennesseeavg 66¢	$27.9K	$42.1K	+$14.2K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
FL FlamePyro	Tennesseeavg 79.5¢	$26.1K	$28.4K	+$2.3K	56% 490-389 (879)
RN1	Tennesseeavg 73.9¢	$26.4K	$22.5K	$-3.9K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Kentuckyavg 31.9¢	$73.1K	$19.0K	$-54.1K	48% 405-446 (851)
VeryLucky888	Tennesseeavg 67¢	$6.5K	$7.3K	+$2.3K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
HI hi774cCTR	Kentuckyavg 34¢	$12.2K	$6.0K	$-8.2K	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Tennesseeavg 71.6¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$87.57	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
TA takeormake	Tennesseeavg 71.4¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$34.36	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
OJ ojg	Tennesseeavg 77.6¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$385.68	43% 838-1096 (1934)
JU justaluckydude	Tennesseeavg 68.9¢	$3.8K	$4.5K	+$691.11	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Tennesseeavg 62.7¢	$3.3K	$3.9K	+$666.4	44% 330-424 (754)
unknowngambler	Tennesseeavg 62.7¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	+$581.32	58% 421-310 (731)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Kentuckyavg 27.8¢	$19.9K	$2.5K	$-15.7K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
0xheavy888	Tennesseeavg 66¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$840.65	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Tennesseeavg 71.5¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$370.52	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
RollAwayTheDew	Tennesseeavg 61.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$107.34	54% 540-457 (997)
dips.	Tennesseeavg 76¢	$932.26	$1.2K	+$281.15	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
AV averagejoetraders	Tennesseeavg 66.7¢	$721.18	$1.1K	+$353.71	57% 676-519 (1195)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Tennesseeavg 68.8¢	$719.85	$1.0K	+$321.06	53% 626-550 (1176)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Tennesseeavg 82.9¢	$972.96	$1.0K	+$32.63	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
BI BillBenter2026	Tennesseeavg 65.2¢	$483.52	$721.29	+$237.77	57% 19479-14427 (33906)

ethanaz

Tennessee

Invested

$69,464.05

Value

$78.3K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

49%

730-758 (1488)

ferrariChampions2026

Tennessee

Invested

$57,705.97

Value

$73.0K

PnL

+$15.3K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Tennessee

Invested

$45,079.03

Value

$62.9K

PnL

+$17.8K

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

CUTJALENHURTS

Tennessee

Invested

$35,931.37

Value

$48.9K

PnL

+$13.0K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Tennessee

Invested

$27,936.02

Value

$42.1K

PnL

+$14.2K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

FlamePyro

Tennessee

Invested

$26,085.48

Value

$28.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

56%

490-389 (879)

RN1

Tennessee

Invested

$26,403.41

Value

$22.5K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$73,103

Value

$19.0K

PnL

$-54.1K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

VeryLucky888

Tennessee

Invested

$6,515.89

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

hi774cCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$12,198.53

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Tennessee

Invested

$6,028.3

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$87.57

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

takeormake

Tennessee

Invested

$5,362.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$34.36

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

ojg

Tennessee

Invested

$4,912.41

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$385.68

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

justaluckydude

Tennessee

Invested

$3,828.84

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$691.11

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

ENDBOSSLLC

Tennessee

Invested

$3,266.4

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$666.4

Record

44%

330-424 (754)

unknowngambler

Tennessee

Invested

$2,849.4

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$581.32

Record

58%

421-310 (731)

6512395314597884CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$19,919.46

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-15.7K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

0xheavy888

Tennessee

Invested

$1,658.69

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$840.65

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Tennessee

Invested

$1,506.42

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$370.52

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

RollAwayTheDew

Tennessee

Invested

$1,375.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$107.34

Record

54%

540-457 (997)

dips.

Tennessee

Invested

$932.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$281.15

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

averagejoetraders

Tennessee

Invested

$721.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$353.71

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

oxe78sh4w98

Tennessee

Invested

$719.85

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$321.06

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Tennessee

Invested

$972.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$32.63

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

BillBenter2026

Tennessee

Invested

$483.52

Value

$721.29

PnL

+$237.77

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

32 of 44 top traders (73%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKentucky 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTennessee 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tennessee 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.