Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winner

23 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (62%) · G2 at 56¢ · $124K held · ends Nov 11

MOUZ44¢G256¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$123.8K

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 56.5¢

+58% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 37 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ44%

G256%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G223 traders

Total Value$63.9K

Total Shares152,295

Combined PnL+$8.9K

MOUZ14 traders

Total Value$35.2K

Total Shares66,885

Combined PnL$-5.4K

G2 — 62%MOUZ — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CORGII	G2avg 31.5¢	$13.3K	$18.4K	+$5.1K	0% 0-490 (490)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	MOUZavg 57.2¢	$14.5K	$15.2K	+$706.53	65% 50-27 (77)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 39¢	$6.1K	$8.6K	+$2.6K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 57.2¢	$8.4K	$6.5K	$-1.9K
CR crmannetjeCTR	MOUZavg 56.5¢	$15.3K	$12.0K	$-3.2K	— 1-18 (19)
NS NS13	G2avg 32¢	$8.1K	$11.0K	+$2.9K	— 1-3 (4)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	G2avg 31¢	$10.4K	$10.6K	+$167.59	51% 3706-3538 (7244)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	G2avg 43.4¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$17.27	52% 1349-1234 (2583)
UB ubetteruuuu	G2avg 45.8¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$400.06	12% 15-110 (125)
forsenxdCTR	MOUZavg 69¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$39.29	49% 356-375 (731)
RR rroosterCTR	MOUZavg 65.1¢	$5.9K	$4.8K	$-1.0K	36% 17-30 (47)
HO HongweiqianCTR	MOUZavg 58¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$199.59	53% 235-205 (440)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	G2avg 40.2¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$364.62	50% 58-59 (117)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 40.2¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$639.35
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$274.74
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	MOUZavg 61¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$218.13	56% 3836-3005 (6841)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 61¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$620.91
└ G2 leg	G2avg 41.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$402.78
AS asuka7CTR	MOUZavg 68.3¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$37.5	2% 7-310 (317)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	G2avg 45.2¢	$3.5K	$1.9K	-$361.95	— 5-2 (7)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 45.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$128.96
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 70¢	$542.4	$391.3	-$490.91
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	G2avg 42¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$62.74	11% 15-123 (138)
BL black-rabbit	G2avg 45.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$130.93	3% 2-66 (68)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESCTR	MOUZavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$44.99	46% 893-1059 (1952)
minji	G2avg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$135	— 5-3 (8)
0xheavy888	G2avg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$135	55% 197-164 (361)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	MOUZavg 68¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.69	2% 6-288 (294)
12 121212121212121212121212	G2avg 54¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$38.02	— 2-4 (6)
WH white-rabbit	G2avg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15	3% 2-68 (70)
BI BillBenter2026	G2avg 48.9¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$230.38	21% 129-485 (614)
latvian.demon	G2avg 55¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.24	4% 19-431 (450)
LI LiquidifierCTR	MOUZavg 69¢	$1.5K	$966.57	-$566.61	10% 9-84 (93)

CORGII

Invested

$13,307.78

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

0-490 (490)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$14,459.55

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$706.53

Record

65%

50-27 (77)

Both legs:

G2$6,065.839¢+$2.6K

MOUZ$8,393.7557.2¢$-1.9K

crmannetjeCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$15,254.39

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

—

1-18 (19)

NS13

Invested

$8,109.09

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

—

1-3 (4)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$10,390.39

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$167.59

Record

51%

3706-3538 (7244)

THEHIGHLIFE

Invested

$5,687.85

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$17.27

Record

52%

1349-1234 (2583)

ubetteruuuu

Invested

$5,003.38

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$400.06

Record

12%

15-110 (125)

forsenxdCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$5,421.41

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$39.29

Record

49%

356-375 (731)

rroosterCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$5,859.94

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

36%

17-30 (47)

HongweiqianCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$4,630.56

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$199.59

Record

53%

235-205 (440)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Invested

$3,714.88

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$364.62

Record

50%

58-59 (117)

Both legs:

G2$1,936.2840.2¢+$639.35

MOUZ$1,778.5955¢-$274.74

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$3,462.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$218.13

Record

56%

3836-3005 (6841)

Both legs:

MOUZ$2,297.2561¢-$620.91

G2$1,164.8341.2¢+$402.78

asuka7CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$3,074.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$37.5

Record

7-310 (317)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Invested

$3,456.04

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$361.95

Record

—

5-2 (7)

Both legs:

G2$1,356.0445.2¢+$128.96

MOUZ$542.470¢-$490.91

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

Invested

$1,736.85

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$62.74

Record

11%

15-123 (138)

black-rabbit

Invested

$1,587.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$130.93

Record

2-66 (68)

fkALG2FalconsTESCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,559.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$44.99

Record

46%

893-1059 (1952)

minji

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$135

Record

—

5-3 (8)

0xheavy888

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$135

Record

55%

197-164 (361)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,453.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.69

Record

6-288 (294)

121212121212121212121212

Invested

$1,368.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$38.02

Record

—

2-4 (6)

white-rabbit

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15

Record

2-68 (70)

BillBenter2026

Invested

$1,935.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$230.38

Record

21%

129-485 (614)

latvian.demon

Invested

$1,016.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.24

Record

19-431 (450)

LiquidifierCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,533.18

Value

$966.57

PnL

-$566.61

Record

10%

9-84 (93)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

23 of 37 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.