Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Falcons, while the market favors Vitality (90%). 19 of 44 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A

19 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (43%) · Team Falcons at 11¢ · $173K held · ends Nov 11

Vitality90¢Team Falcons10¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 43%

Total Value

$173.2K

Combined PnL

$-60.1K

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 10.5¢

-66% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Falcons at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

19 of 44 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 90%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality90%

Team Falcons11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality25 traders

Total Value$147.1K

Total Shares155,197

Combined PnL+$31.3K

Team Falcons19 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares381,649

Combined PnL$-91.4K

Vitality — 57%Team Falcons — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Team Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Team Falcons) and the top 1000 (42 on Vitality) disagree here.

sharpTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperVitality 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrVitality 57% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 62% · 42

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	Vitalityavg 68¢	$27.2K	$37.6K	+$10.4K	47% 409-457 (866)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	Vitalityavg 67¢	$26.8K	$37.6K	+$10.8K	— 0-2 (2)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Vitalityavg 79.8¢	$11.9K	$12.2K	+$314.51	64% 47-26 (73)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Team Falconsavg 32¢	$64.6K	$12.1K	$-52.5K	51% 713-691 (1404)
QI qiu3	Vitalityavg 80.8¢	$8.8K	$10.2K	+$1.4K	0% 0-32 (32)
forsenxd	Vitalityavg 68¢	$5.3K	$7.4K	+$2.0K	48% 353-375 (728)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Vitalityavg 85¢	$6.8K	$7.3K	+$522.06	1% 4-288 (292)
CORGIICTR	Team Falconsavg 33¢	$29.8K	$5.4K	$-24.4K	0% 0-488 (488)
minji	Vitalityavg 68.3¢	$3.1K	$4.2K	+$1.2K	— 3-3 (6)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Team Falconsavg 30.6¢	$12.1K	$4.2K	$-8.0K	1% 2-202 (204)
0xheavy888	Vitalityavg 69.4¢	$3.0K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	56% 147-116 (263)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Vitalityavg 77.7¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$113.21	56% 3827-2997 (6824)
31 319113331313111	Vitalityavg 73.2¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$493.41	48% 54-59 (113)
DamwonChampions2026	Vitalityavg 68¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$780	— 3-2 (5)
JU JuiceFarm	Vitalityavg 70¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$720	— 11-7 (18)
SU suleng66	Vitalityavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$685.71	2% 1-51 (52)
latvian.demon	Vitalityavg 80¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$350	3% 12-428 (440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Vitalityavg 79.8¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$553.29	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
RI Richidd	Vitalityavg 72.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$284.95	52% 77-71 (148)
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	Team Falconsavg 13.6¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$849.74	0% 0-48 (48)
BI BillBenter2026	Vitalityavg 69.3¢	$999.63	$1.4K	+$355.85	19% 116-482 (598)
RA Rayaya	Vitalityavg 70¢	$965.26	$1.3K	+$330.95	— 1-0 (1)
AM ameisgoat11	Vitalityavg 79.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$41.97	28% 205-534 (739)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Team Falconsavg 29¢	$2.0K	$812.29	$-1.2K	51% 3684-3525 (7209)
vtcchampion52CTR	Team Falconsavg 23.7¢	$1.8K	$777.65	-$979.49	48% 847-901 (1748)

drainedandpoor

Vitality

Invested

$27,200

Value

$37.6K

PnL

+$10.4K

Record

47%

409-457 (866)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

Vitality

Invested

$26,799.96

Value

$37.6K

PnL

+$10.8K

Record

—

0-2 (2)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Vitality

Invested

$11,906.17

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$314.51

Record

64%

47-26 (73)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$64,612.71

Value

$12.1K

PnL

$-52.5K

Record

51%

713-691 (1404)

qiu3

Vitality

Invested

$8,767

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

0-32 (32)

forsenxd

Vitality

Invested

$5,342.13

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

353-375 (728)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Vitality

Invested

$6,826.95

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$522.06

Record

4-288 (292)

CORGIICTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$29,809.89

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-24.4K

Record

0-488 (488)

minji

Vitality

Invested

$3,071.59

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

3-3 (6)

lllllllIlllCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$12,147.44

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

2-202 (204)

0xheavy888

Vitality

Invested

$2,972.29

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

147-116 (263)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Vitality

Invested

$3,707.57

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$113.21

Record

56%

3827-2997 (6824)

319113331313111

Vitality

Invested

$2,831.48

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$493.41

Record

48%

54-59 (113)

DamwonChampions2026

Vitality

Invested

$2,040

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$780

Record

—

3-2 (5)

JuiceFarm

Vitality

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$720

Record

—

11-7 (18)

suleng66

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$685.71

Record

1-51 (52)

latvian.demon

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$350

Record

12-428 (440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Vitality

Invested

$2,142.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$553.29

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

Richidd

Vitality

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$284.95

Record

52%

77-71 (148)

fengdubisheng117CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,279.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$849.74

Record

0-48 (48)

BillBenter2026

Vitality

Invested

$999.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$355.85

Record

19%

116-482 (598)

Rayaya

Vitality

Invested

$965.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$330.95

Record

—

1-0 (1)

ameisgoat11

Vitality

Invested

$1,232.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$41.97

Record

28%

205-534 (739)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,032.22

Value

$812.29

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

3684-3525 (7209)

vtcchampion52CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,757.14

Value

$777.65

PnL

-$979.49

Record

48%

847-901 (1748)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Falcons at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

19 of 44 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 90%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Team Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Team Falcons) and the top 1000 (42 on Vitality) disagree here.

sharpTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperVitality 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrVitality 57% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 62% · 42

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.