Will FC RFS win on 2026-11-08?

17 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$60

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 97.4¢

+4% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,658

Combined PnL-$60.96

Yes6 traders

Total Value$580.36

Total Shares4,728

Combined PnL+$0.96

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AH aHjCz	Noavg 95.2¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$24.47	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 91.9¢	$826.44	$878.84	+$52.4	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
WH whig	Noavg 91¢	$727.87	$773.46	+$45.59	59% 423-293 (716)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 88.7¢	$423.29	$466.53	+$43.24	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$320.75	$424.22	+$103.47	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
dips.	Noavg 98.1¢	$708.25	$375.44	-$332.81	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 96.7¢	$309.73	$312.78	+$3.04	62% 998-609 (1607)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 90.2¢	$614.23	$226.35	+$15.11	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 93.5¢	$422.08	$197.12	+$3.47	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 90.7¢	$549.17	$176.12	+$3.65	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.7¢	$171.13	$169.74	-$1.4	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$189.5	$131.21	-$58.29	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 95.8¢	$149.08	$75	-$0.14	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 94.1¢	$366.01	$73.83	+$1.72	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 90.4¢	$394.21	$63.41	+$4.13	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 97.3¢	$123.93	$39.03	-$18.45	28% 3390-8578 (11968)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$31.05	$30.92	-$0.14	32% 7674-16005 (23679)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 71.7¢	$1.2K	$24.89	+$70.26	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$50.09	$19.72	-$30.37	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
DE 0xdea2...e981<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$86.78	$11.07	+$24.89	64% 18-10 (28)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$16.24	$2.59	-$13.65	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$1.83	$2.43	+$0.61	38% 1359-2193 (3552)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$1	$0.19	-$0.81	59% 33715-23828 (57543)

aHjCz

Invested

$2,193.42

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$24.47

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$826.44

Value

$878.84

PnL

+$52.4

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

whig

Invested

$727.87

Value

$773.46

PnL

+$45.59

Record

59%

423-293 (716)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$423.29

Value

$466.53

PnL

+$43.24

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$320.75

Value

$424.22

PnL

+$103.47

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

dips.

Invested

$708.25

Value

$375.44

PnL

-$332.81

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$309.73

Value

$312.78

PnL

+$3.04

Record

62%

998-609 (1607)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$614.23

Value

$226.35

PnL

+$15.11

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$422.08

Value

$197.12

PnL

+$3.47

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$549.17

Value

$176.12

PnL

+$3.65

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$171.13

Value

$169.74

PnL

-$1.4

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$189.5

Value

$131.21

PnL

-$58.29

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$149.08

Value

$75

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$366.01

Value

$73.83

PnL

+$1.72

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$394.21

Value

$63.41

PnL

+$4.13

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$123.93

Value

$39.03

PnL

-$18.45

Record

28%

3390-8578 (11968)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.05

Value

$30.92

PnL

-$0.14

Record

32%

7674-16005 (23679)

e46m3

Invested

$1,190.88

Value

$24.89

PnL

+$70.26

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.09

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$30.37

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

0xdea2...e981<$100

Invested

$86.78

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$24.89

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.24

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$13.65

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.61

Record

38%

1359-2193 (3552)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.81

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.