Oilers vs. Devils

16 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (55%) · Devils at 53¢ · $92K held · ended Nov 4

Oilers48¢Devils52¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Devils

Consensus Traders

Devils 55%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$92.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 52.5¢

-4% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

16 of 29 top traders (55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oilers48%

Devils53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers13 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares74,723

Combined PnL-$647.99

Devils16 traders

Total Value$41.5K

Total Shares77,729

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Oilers — 45%Devils — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOilers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOilers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOilers 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedDevils 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Devils 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA para-VisionCTR	Oilersavg 50.5¢	$28.2K	$27.6K	-$571.1	56% 229-182 (411)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Devilsavg 53¢	$26.0K	$24.8K	$-1.2K	48% 276-299 (575)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Devilsavg 51.7¢	$10.0K	$10.5K	+$512.76	46% 1328-1544 (2872)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 51.7¢	$8.6K	$8.4K	-$192.83
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 33.1¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$705.58
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Devilsavg 59¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$46.3	52% 922-866 (1788)
CO cocococococo	Devilsavg 59.9¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$34.32	52% 1671-1542 (3213)
RN1	Devilsavg 52.4¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$123.29	53% 59145-51446 (110591)
RO roldyCTR	Oilersavg 41¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$29.99	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Devilsavg 52.6¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$118.83	51% 23471-22229 (45700)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 52.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$74.01
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 54¢	$535.57	$490.74	-$44.82
one8tyfive	Devilsavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0	58% 2132-1518 (3650)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Oilersavg 51.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$63	51% 445-431 (876)
EG EgorkasxxCTR	Oilersavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$20.76	52% 55-50 (105)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oilersavg 30.8¢	$169.72	$1.3K	+$94.76	47% 14435-15957 (30392)
└ Devils leg	Devils	$997.06	$997.06	+$0
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 30.8¢	$169.72	$264.48	+$94.76
GA gagarin59CTR	Oilersavg 41¢	$999.99	$975.6	-$12.2	51% 766-737 (1503)
VeryLucky888CTR	Oilersavg 40.9¢	$905.33	$896.4	-$8.93	58% 44724-32558 (77282)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Devilsavg 61.6¢	$643.23	$678.37	+$35.14	52% 14146-12910 (27056)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 61.6¢	$510.58	$418.43	-$92.15
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 25.3¢	$132.65	$259.94	+$127.29
TO topdogbigboi	Devilsavg 54.4¢	$452.88	$439.94	-$12.94	47% 10621-11901 (22522)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Devilsavg 52.2¢	$291.83	$304.31	-$7.8	50% 20263-20587 (40850)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 52.2¢	$199.41	$192.73	-$6.68
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 41¢	$92.42	$111.58	-$1.13
poshposh	Devilsavg 50.2¢	$275.98	$277.71	+$1.73	57% 11936-9015 (20951)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Devilsavg 61.2¢	$252.96	$245.93	-$7.03	51% 1727-1652 (3379)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Oilersavg 28¢	$200.52	$214.87	+$14.35	57% 19004-14063 (33067)
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 28¢	$102.43	$148.23	+$45.8
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 87.6¢	$98.09	$66.64	-$31.45
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Devilsavg 85.9¢	$131	$97.75	-$33.25	53% 11571-10123 (21694)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 85.9¢	$94.47	$65.44	-$29.02
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 45.8¢	$36.53	$32.31	-$4.22
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Oilersavg 26¢	$56.63	$88.22	+$31.58	53% 11760-10241 (22001)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Oilersavg 49¢	$71.05	$71.78	+$0.72	50% 8138-8145 (16283)
GA Gaditima<$100	Devilsavg 66¢	$66	$59.5	-$6.5	48% 6904-7549 (14453)
GH ghorrock<$100	Devilsavg 59.4¢	$45.7	$42.31	+$0.07	58% 18645-13742 (32387)

para-VisionCTR

Oilers

Invested

$28,207.44

Value

$27.6K

PnL

-$571.1

Record

56%

229-182 (411)

Multicoloured-Serf

Devils

Invested

$26,009.36

Value

$24.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$10,024.51

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$512.76

Record

46%

1328-1544 (2872)

Both legs:

Devils$8,605.3151.7¢-$192.83

Oilers$1,419.233.1¢+$705.58

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Devils

Invested

$5,455.95

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$46.3

Record

52%

922-866 (1788)

cocococococo

Devils

Invested

$4,841.53

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$34.32

Record

52%

1671-1542 (3213)

RN1

Devils

Invested

$3,409.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$123.29

Record

53%

59145-51446 (110591)

roldyCTR

Oilers

Invested

$2,460

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$29.99

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$2,359.31

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$118.83

Record

51%

23471-22229 (45700)

Both legs:

Devils$1,823.7452.6¢-$74.01

Oilers$535.5754¢-$44.82

one8tyfive

Devils

Invested

$2,026.87

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

2132-1518 (3650)

PIPIZINCTR

Oilers

Invested

$1,845

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$63

Record

51%

445-431 (876)

EgorkasxxCTR

Oilers

Invested

$1,660.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$20.76

Record

52%

55-50 (105)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oilers

Invested

$169.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$94.76

Record

47%

14435-15957 (30392)

Both legs:

Devils$997.06—+$0

Oilers$169.7230.8¢+$94.76

gagarin59CTR

Oilers

Invested

$999.99

Value

$975.6

PnL

-$12.2

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

VeryLucky888CTR

Oilers

Invested

$905.33

Value

$896.4

PnL

-$8.93

Record

58%

44724-32558 (77282)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$643.23

Value

$678.37

PnL

+$35.14

Record

52%

14146-12910 (27056)

Both legs:

Devils$510.5861.6¢-$92.15

Oilers$132.6525.3¢+$127.29

topdogbigboi

Devils

Invested

$452.88

Value

$439.94

PnL

-$12.94

Record

47%

10621-11901 (22522)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$291.83

Value

$304.31

PnL

-$7.8

Record

50%

20263-20587 (40850)

Both legs:

Devils$199.4152.2¢-$6.68

Oilers$92.4241¢-$1.13

poshposh

Devils

Invested

$275.98

Value

$277.71

PnL

+$1.73

Record

57%

11936-9015 (20951)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Devils

Invested

$252.96

Value

$245.93

PnL

-$7.03

Record

51%

1727-1652 (3379)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Oilers

Invested

$200.52

Value

$214.87

PnL

+$14.35

Record

57%

19004-14063 (33067)

Both legs:

Oilers$102.4328¢+$45.8

Devils$98.0987.6¢-$31.45

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$131

Value

$97.75

PnL

-$33.25

Record

53%

11571-10123 (21694)

Both legs:

Devils$94.4785.9¢-$29.02

Oilers$36.5345.8¢-$4.22

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$56.63

Value

$88.22

PnL

+$31.58

Record

53%

11760-10241 (22001)

RLWGCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$71.05

Value

$71.78

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

8138-8145 (16283)

Gaditima<$100

Devils

Invested

$66

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

48%

6904-7549 (14453)

ghorrock<$100

Devils

Invested

$45.7

Value

$42.31

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Devils

16 of 29 top traders (55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOilers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOilers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOilers 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedDevils 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Devils 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.