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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
UpTheBluesbeachboy40x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241primm
Record (consensus markets)49% (17998–18484, n=36482)68% (43–20, n=63)56% (101–79, n=180)50% (941–941, n=1882)
Consensus PnL$1.4M$5.8M$3.5M$3.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #7was PM monthly #24was PM monthly #373PM monthly #181
Sides with the consensus64% (158 of 246 open)100% (1 of 1 open)no open consensus position61% (20 of 33 open)
Strongest topics
  • MLB +59 pts n=942, ROI +58%
  • Esports +62 pts n=66, ROI +63%
  • MMA +63 pts n=36, ROI +63%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • MLB +46 pts n=20, ROI +49%
  • Esports +35 pts n=28, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +30 pts n=52, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—NBA −6 pts, n=92——
Settled positions, side won100% of 37860 at avg 66¢, ROI +37%57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42%99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢7% (won 99% of 2645)3% (won 17% of 6)7% (won 75% of 8)5% (won 93% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢21% (won 100% of 7907)29% (won 56% of 62)26% (won 93% of 29)41% (won 99% of 366)
Entries 50–70¢22% (won 100% of 8513)54% (won 51% of 115)42% (won 96% of 47)49% (won 99% of 433)
Entries 70¢ and up50% (won 100% of 18795)14% (won 86% of 29)24% (won 96% of 27)5% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 16 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketUpTheBluesbeachboy40x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241primm
Spread: Bills (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
Ravens $13K——Bills $988
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Falcons $6.7K——Buccaneers $4.9K
Spread: Bills (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
Ravens $58——Bills $4.5K
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 58.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $2.9K——Under $65
Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Falcons
Falcons $258——Buccaneers $1.6K
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Falcons $42——Buccaneers $1.5K
Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $329——Under $1.2K
Spread: Bills (-16.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Ravens $630——Bills $662
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Under $12——Over $1.1K
Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 56.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $164——Under $828
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $7——Under $575
Spread: Raiders (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
Jets $395——Raiders $138
Spread: Bills (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Ravens $457——Bills $3
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Bills $6——Ravens $295
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $192——Over $2
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 38.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $46——Over $13
Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Buccaneers $254——Buccaneers $2.0K
Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)
same side · consensus Falcons
Buccaneers $7——Buccaneers $2.0K
Spread: Jaguars (-17.5)
same side · consensus Colts
Colts $869——Colts $313
Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 40.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $36——Under $1.0K
Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 50.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $5——Under $809
Spread: Bills (-2.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
Ravens $12——Ravens $376
Spread: Jaguars (-14.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
Jaguars $328——Jaguars $4
Spread: Steelers (-6.5)
same side · consensus Steelers
Steelers $96——Steelers $156