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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| balthazar | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (9303–8059, n=17362) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.2M | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 59% (26 of 44 open) | no open consensus position | 54% (14 of 26 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 75% of 14708 at avg 60¢, ROI +14% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 28% (won 20% of 4153) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 82% of 941) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 96% of 2101) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 51% (won 99% of 7513) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 18 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.