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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| cigarettes | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10101–10684, n=20785) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 50% (10–10, n=20) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $631K | $10.6M | $5.3M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #2 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (289 of 428 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
16 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.