Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

16 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (57%) · MOUZ at 78¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 11

MOUZ78¢G222¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.1K

Combined PnL

$655.52

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

16 of 28 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ78%

G223%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ16 traders

Total Value$39.8K

Total Shares49,230

Combined PnL+$1.1K

G212 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares41,613

Combined PnL-$397.79

MOUZ — 57%G2 — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on G2) and the top 1000 (21 on MOUZ) disagree here.

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMOUZ 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperG2 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrG2 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedG2 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 57% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	MOUZavg 82¢	$13.5K	$13.9K	+$311.86	65% 50-27 (77)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 82¢	$10.7K	$10.1K	-$583.08
└ G2 leg	G2avg 17.1¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	+$894.93
RE redvinny	MOUZavg 87.8¢	$11.9K	$10.5K	$-1.4K	9% 12-128 (140)
RR rrooster	MOUZavg 73¢	$6.9K	$8.1K	+$1.1K	36% 17-30 (47)
SU SuperMegaManCTR	G2avg 26.1¢	$5.2K	$4.5K	-$725.91	49% 605-625 (1230)
CR crmannetje	MOUZavg 74¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$201.39	— 1-18 (19)
AS asuka7	MOUZavg 68¢	$3.5K	$4.4K	+$940.04	2% 7-310 (317)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 76¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$75	— 3-0 (3)
forsenxdARB<$100	MOUZavg 70.6¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$191.79	49% 356-375 (731)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 70.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$377.13
└ G2 leg	G2avg 29.4¢	$1.2K	$592.86	-$568.92
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	MOUZavg 82.1¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$270.58	56% 3836-3005 (6841)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 82.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$62.92
└ G2 leg	G2avg 12.7¢	$544.83	$878.33	+$333.5
Vladooos	MOUZavg 81.1¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$119.16	64% 14-8 (22)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	MOUZavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$142.44	51% 3706-3538 (7244)
FR frohp5	MOUZavg 84.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$74.8	60% 1225-809 (2034)
31 319113331313111	MOUZavg 88¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.03	50% 58-59 (117)
0xheavy888CTR	G2avg 14¢	$548.44	$879.67	+$331.23	55% 197-164 (361)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	MOUZavg 69¢	$710.1	$874.76	+$164.66	11% 15-123 (138)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	G2avg 12.9¢	$458.8	$728.04	+$269.23	53% 1783-1584 (3367)
10 10scat	MOUZavg 85¢	$741	$727.92	-$13.08	3% 17-519 (536)
minjiCTR	G2avg 12¢	$360	$675	+$315	— 5-3 (8)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	G2avg 12¢	$360.84	$675	+$314.16	— 5-2 (7)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	G2avg 32¢	$1.1K	$499.5	-$566.1	— 2-8 (10)
BI BillBenter2026	MOUZavg 78.3¢	$501.45	$496.13	-$5.32	21% 129-485 (614)
CA calculate10CTR	G2avg 14.6¢	$309	$202.5	+$79.5	22% 25-90 (115)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	G2avg 24¢	$428.99	$187.91	-$241.08	54% 30-26 (56)
VeryLucky888CTR	G2avg 27.6¢	$930.6	$166.49	-$76.16	52% 440-413 (853)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	MOUZavg 85¢	$160	$149.65	-$10.35	20% 100-403 (503)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$13,544.16

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$311.86

Record

65%

50-27 (77)

Both legs:

MOUZ$10,719.0382¢-$583.08

G2$2,825.1217.1¢+$894.93

redvinny

MOUZ

Invested

$11,850.5

Value

$10.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

12-128 (140)

rrooster

MOUZ

Invested

$6,931.07

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

36%

17-30 (47)

SuperMegaManCTR

Invested

$5,222.21

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$725.91

Record

49%

605-625 (1230)

crmannetje

MOUZ

Invested

$4,198.73

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$201.39

Record

—

1-18 (19)

asuka7

MOUZ

Invested

$3,455.28

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$940.04

Record

7-310 (317)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$3,800

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

—

3-0 (3)

forsenxdARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$3,008.42

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$191.79

Record

49%

356-375 (731)

Both legs:

MOUZ$1,846.6470.6¢+$377.13

G2$1,161.7829.4¢-$568.92

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$2,505.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$270.58

Record

56%

3836-3005 (6841)

Both legs:

MOUZ$1,960.8682.1¢-$62.92

G2$544.8312.7¢+$333.5

Vladooos

MOUZ

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$119.16

Record

64%

14-8 (22)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

MOUZ

Invested

$1,202.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$142.44

Record

51%

3706-3538 (7244)

frohp5

MOUZ

Invested

$1,235

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$74.8

Record

60%

1225-809 (2034)

319113331313111

MOUZ

Invested

$1,118.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.03

Record

50%

58-59 (117)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$548.44

Value

$879.67

PnL

+$331.23

Record

55%

197-164 (361)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

MOUZ

Invested

$710.1

Value

$874.76

PnL

+$164.66

Record

11%

15-123 (138)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$458.8

Value

$728.04

PnL

+$269.23

Record

53%

1783-1584 (3367)

10scat

MOUZ

Invested

$741

Value

$727.92

PnL

-$13.08

Record

17-519 (536)

minjiCTR

Invested

$360

Value

$675

PnL

+$315

Record

—

5-3 (8)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

Invested

$360.84

Value

$675

PnL

+$314.16

Record

—

5-2 (7)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

Invested

$1,065.59

Value

$499.5

PnL

-$566.1

Record

—

2-8 (10)

BillBenter2026

MOUZ

Invested

$501.45

Value

$496.13

PnL

-$5.32

Record

21%

129-485 (614)

calculate10CTR

Invested

$309

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$79.5

Record

22%

25-90 (115)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Invested

$428.99

Value

$187.91

PnL

-$241.08

Record

54%

30-26 (56)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$930.6

Value

$166.49

PnL

-$76.16

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

MOUZ

Invested

$160

Value

$149.65

PnL

-$10.35

Record

20%

100-403 (503)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

16 of 28 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on G2) and the top 1000 (21 on MOUZ) disagree here.

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMOUZ 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperG2 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrG2 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedG2 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 57% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.