Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

17 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (46%) · Natus Vincere at 100¢ · $393K held · ends Nov 8

Natus Vincere>99¢BetBoom Team<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$392.8K

Combined PnL

$-13.5K

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

17 of 37 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere100%

BetBoom Team0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere17 traders

Total Value$327.7K

Total Shares353,941

Combined PnL+$4.8K

BetBoom Team20 traders

Total Value$64.7K

Total Shares244,522

Combined PnL$-18.3K

Natus Vincere — 46%BetBoom Team — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Natus Vincereavg 99.9¢	$236.4K	$236.5K	+$118.33	98% 18444-384 (18828)
LL lllllllIlll	Natus Vincereavg 61.8¢	$33.8K	$34.7K	+$938.99	54% 322-277 (599)
KateBollinger	Natus Vincereavg 59.5¢	$25.2K	$24.3K	+$2.1K	68% 1824-865 (2689)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 39.5¢	$31.6K	$20.4K	$-11.2K	50% 7740-7873 (15613)
CORGIICTR	BetBoom Teamavg 42.1¢	$20.8K	$20.2K	-$529.54	41% 418-597 (1015)
forsenxdCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38.1¢	$8.2K	$8.8K	+$627.29	53% 1123-983 (2106)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Natus Vincereavg 85¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$70.06	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
31 319113331313111	Natus Vincereavg 78.2¢	$5.6K	$5.9K	+$368.24	59% 414-284 (698)
AS asuka7	Natus Vincereavg 64¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$726.56	59% 991-699 (1690)
0xheavy888	Natus Vincereavg 83¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$255	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
CR crmannetjeCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 14.9¢	$5.4K	$2.7K	$-2.7K	48% 27-29 (56)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	Natus Vincereavg 98.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$37.08	97% 3845-139 (3984)
VeryLucky888CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 39.7¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	+$68.19	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
CI cigarettes	Natus Vincereavg 88.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$39.85	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
VI vibing123	Natus Vincereavg 58¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$36.9	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
LooksMaxing101CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$150	51% 888-849 (1737)
AM ameisgoat11	Natus Vincereavg 80.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$81.06	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$850.85	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
RA RayayaCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 41¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	61% 1227-797 (2024)
LO lossxCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 42.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$47.38	59% 307-211 (518)
CA Catch8877CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$17.98	53% 171-150 (321)
BI biying88888CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$14.96	66% 173-91 (264)
BI BillBenter2026	Natus Vincereavg 85.2¢	$988.82	$1.2K	+$170.6	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Natus Vincereavg 99.9¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$0.5	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
VP Vps1	Natus Vincereavg 99.9¢	$999	$999.5	+$0.5	96% 464-19 (483)

pvc975

Natus Vincere

Invested

$236,421.24

Value

$236.5K

PnL

+$118.33

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

lllllllIlll

Natus Vincere

Invested

$33,774.42

Value

$34.7K

PnL

+$938.99

Record

54%

322-277 (599)

KateBollinger

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,218.08

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

68%

1824-865 (2689)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$31,619.57

Value

$20.4K

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

50%

7740-7873 (15613)

CORGIICTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$20,756.04

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$529.54

Record

41%

418-597 (1015)

forsenxdCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$8,201.29

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$627.29

Record

53%

1123-983 (2106)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,718.08

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$70.06

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

319113331313111

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,574.83

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$368.24

Record

59%

414-284 (698)

asuka7

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$726.56

Record

59%

991-699 (1690)

0xheavy888

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,490

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$255

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

crmannetjeCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$5,433.6

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

48%

27-29 (56)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,693.22

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$37.08

Record

97%

3845-139 (3984)

VeryLucky888CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$3,722.7

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$68.19

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

cigarettes

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,239.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$39.85

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

vibing123

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,140.36

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$36.9

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

LooksMaxing101CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,900

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$150

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

ameisgoat11

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,718.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$81.06

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,586.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$850.85

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

RayayaCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1227-797 (2024)

lossxCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,524.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$47.38

Record

59%

307-211 (518)

Catch8877CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,366.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$17.98

Record

53%

171-150 (321)

biying88888CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,197.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.96

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

BillBenter2026

Natus Vincere

Invested

$988.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$170.6

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

xtxpleasecallme

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.5

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Vps1

Natus Vincere

Invested

$999

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

96%

464-19 (483)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

17 of 37 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.