Will Paris FC win on 2026-11-01?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 100¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.1K

Combined PnL

$280.02

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 21 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares30,506

Combined PnL+$324.53

No5 traders

Total Value$277.2

Total Shares2,583

Combined PnL-$44.51

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 83.4¢	$5.9K	$6.5K	+$548.36	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
KW kwzo	Yesavg 92¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$134.01	46% 74-86 (160)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 76.8¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$388.51	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 68.8¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$320.43	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.8¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$313.15
└ No leg	Noavg 23.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.28
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 75¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$765.73	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
GR graziek99	Yesavg 94.2¢	$4.8K	$2.3K	-$115.43	87% 415-61 (476)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 8.8¢	$752.69	$1.8K	+$1.1K	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ No leg	Noavg 8.8¢	$466.16	$1.3K	+$825.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39¢	$286.53	$554.7	+$268.17
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 96.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$30.72	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 63.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$173.81	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
AV averagejoetraders	Yesavg 85¢	$726.6	$794.98	+$68.39	56% 570-439 (1009)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 73¢	$456.21	$444.99	-$11.22	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
noosh3	Yesavg 92¢	$400	$389.13	-$10.87	52% 282-260 (542)
HRTrading	Yesavg 45.5¢	$182.33	$354.78	+$172.45	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 14.7¢	$186.7	$160.18	-$26.51	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$209.81	$95.4	-$114.4	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.6¢	$48.08	$75.33	+$27.26
└ No leg	Noavg 28.2¢	$161.73	$20.07	-$141.66
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$31.23	$79.32	+$48.08	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 23.5¢	$83.4	$76.3	-$7.1	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 82.7¢	$65.52	$72.78	+$7.26	58% 18784-13847 (32631)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 30.9¢	$45.45	$34.56	-$10.89	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$18.13	$18.73	+$0.6	76% 4145-1304 (5449)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$10.94	$11	+$0.06	53% 743-647 (1390)
bernardi22CTR	Noavg 5.6¢	$118.98	$3.11	-$0.03	56% 1299-1019 (2318)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0.03	52% 7504-6793 (14297)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$5,943.94

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$548.36

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

kwzo

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$134.01

Record

46%

74-86 (160)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$4,020.17

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$388.51

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,019.62

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$320.43

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

Both legs:

Yes$2,791.6468.8¢+$313.15

No$1,227.9823.4¢+$7.28

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$4,201

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$765.73

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

graziek99

Yes

Invested

$4,800

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$115.43

Record

87%

415-61 (476)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$752.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

No$466.168.8¢+$825.77

Yes$286.5339¢+$268.17

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,399.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30.72

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$1,068.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$173.81

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$1,246.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

averagejoetraders

Yes

Invested

$726.6

Value

$794.98

PnL

+$68.39

Record

56%

570-439 (1009)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$456.21

Value

$444.99

PnL

-$11.22

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

noosh3

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$389.13

PnL

-$10.87

Record

52%

282-260 (542)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$182.33

Value

$354.78

PnL

+$172.45

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$186.7

Value

$160.18

PnL

-$26.51

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$209.81

Value

$95.4

PnL

-$114.4

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

Both legs:

Yes$48.0861.6¢+$27.26

No$161.7328.2¢-$141.66

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$79.32

PnL

+$48.08

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$83.4

Value

$76.3

PnL

-$7.1

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.52

Value

$72.78

PnL

+$7.26

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$45.45

Value

$34.56

PnL

-$10.89

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$0.6

Record

76%

4145-1304 (5449)

RichieRicher<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.94

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

743-647 (1390)

bernardi22CTR

Invested

$118.98

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0.03

Record

56%

1299-1019 (2318)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 21 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.