Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maple Leafs, while the market favors Utah (77%). 21 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Utah vs. Maple Leafs

21 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (66%) · Maple Leafs at 24¢ · $66K held · ended Nov 4

Utah77¢Maple Leafs23¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 66%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 23.5¢

-43% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaple Leafs at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

21 of 32 top traders (66%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah77%

Maple Leafs24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah11 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares20,868

Combined PnL-$542.04

Maple Leafs21 traders

Total Value$34.6K

Total Shares87,331

Combined PnL-$762.62

Utah — 34%Maple Leafs — 66%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Utah) and the top 1000 (13 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleUtah 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMaple Leafs 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUtah 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Maple Leafsavg 43.2¢	$10.9K	$10.8K	-$76.39	46% 8263-9657 (17920)
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 43.2¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$99.48
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 57.2¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$23.08
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Utahavg 61.9¢	$8.0K	$7.7K	-$353.25	48% 276-299 (575)
PA para-VisionCTR	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$6.5K	$6.3K	-$150	56% 229-182 (411)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Utahavg 72¢	$6.6K	$5.8K	-$785.31	46% 1309-1528 (2837)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 72¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$89.29
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 42.6¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$874.6
ST stackingsatsCTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$53.35	48% 347-374 (721)
RO royalestakeCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$45	47% 392-445 (837)
BA BabooouCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$180	51% 224-211 (435)
JE jeremyclarCTR	Maple Leafsavg 28.5¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$275.96	43% 45-59 (104)
0xheavy888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 42.5¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$120	56% 7605-6096 (13701)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 42.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$40	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
OM omnibus-076daa	Utahavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	-$26.79	50% 20222-20549 (40771)
CO cocococococo	Utahavg 54.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$22.22	52% 1671-1542 (3213)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$14.48	51% 3571-3496 (7067)
NO NordhavenCap	Utahavg 75.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$33.44	57% 2315-1729 (4044)
fyrskenCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$12.49	49% 311-329 (640)
TO torta.techCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$1.0K	$953.45	-$62.62	62% 8408-5195 (13603)
NO NotJump	Utahavg 73¢	$935	$867.5	-$67.5	43% 10231-13295 (23526)
0X 0x8efa1ea8ee2d456a051ae2985079a1e3c9aa894cCTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$850.92	$840.79	-$10.13	46% 859-999 (1858)
LaminionYamalCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44¢	$880	$840	-$40	44% 1856-2367 (4223)
IC ic4creamCTR	Maple Leafsavg 46¢	$900.68	$822.36	-$9.79	58% 2687-1981 (4668)
RN1	Utahavg 73¢	$673.3	$677.91	+$4.61	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$663.38	$660	-$3.38	51% 204-197 (401)
JU justaluckydude	Utahavg 71.1¢	$618.82	$509.11	-$109.71	53% 11571-10123 (21694)
GA gagarin59CTR	Maple Leafsavg 42¢	$401.11	$420.21	+$19.1	51% 766-737 (1503)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Maple Leafsavg 44.2¢	$385.69	$383.72	-$1.97	51% 445-431 (876)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$10,895.72

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$76.39

Record

46%

8263-9657 (17920)

Both legs:

Maple Leafs$6,004.8543.2¢-$99.48

Utah$4,890.8757.2¢+$23.08

Multicoloured-Serf

Utah

Invested

$8,008.81

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$353.25

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

para-VisionCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$6,450

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$150

Record

56%

229-182 (411)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$6,596.46

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$785.31

Record

46%

1309-1528 (2837)

Both legs:

Utah$4,285.872¢+$89.29

Maple Leafs$2,310.6642.6¢-$874.6

stackingsatsCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$4,410.85

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$53.35

Record

48%

347-374 (721)

royalestakeCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$4,050

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$45

Record

47%

392-445 (837)

BabooouCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,960

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$180

Record

51%

224-211 (435)

jeremyclarCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,870.42

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$275.96

Record

43%

45-59 (104)

0xheavy888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,400

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$120

Record

56%

7605-6096 (13701)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,699.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$40

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

omnibus-076daa

Utah

Invested

$1,139.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$26.79

Record

50%

20222-20549 (40771)

cocococococo

Utah

Invested

$1,210.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$22.22

Record

52%

1671-1542 (3213)

HerdoniaCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,216.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.48

Record

51%

3571-3496 (7067)

NordhavenCap

Utah

Invested

$1,154.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$33.44

Record

57%

2315-1729 (4044)

fyrskenCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,124.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$12.49

Record

49%

311-329 (640)

torta.techCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,016.06

Value

$953.45

PnL

-$62.62

Record

62%

8408-5195 (13603)

NotJump

Utah

Invested

$935

Value

$867.5

PnL

-$67.5

Record

43%

10231-13295 (23526)

0x8efa1ea8ee2d456a051ae2985079a1e3c9aa894cCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$850.92

Value

$840.79

PnL

-$10.13

Record

46%

859-999 (1858)

LaminionYamalCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$880

Value

$840

PnL

-$40

Record

44%

1856-2367 (4223)

ic4creamCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$900.68

Value

$822.36

PnL

-$9.79

Record

58%

2687-1981 (4668)

RN1

Utah

Invested

$673.3

Value

$677.91

PnL

+$4.61

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$663.38

Value

$660

PnL

-$3.38

Record

51%

204-197 (401)

justaluckydude

Utah

Invested

$618.82

Value

$509.11

PnL

-$109.71

Record

53%

11571-10123 (21694)

gagarin59CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$401.11

Value

$420.21

PnL

+$19.1

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

PIPIZINCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$385.69

Value

$383.72

PnL

-$1.97

Record

51%

445-431 (876)

Research grade

AvoidMaple Leafs at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

21 of 32 top traders (66%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Utah) and the top 1000 (13 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleUtah 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMaple Leafs 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUtah 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.