Will Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club end in a draw?

6 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 96¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 5

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.8K

Combined PnL

$13.1K

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 96.3¢

+55% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 27 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$58.9K

Total Shares61,362

Combined PnL+$23.4K

No21 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares29,707

Combined PnL$-10.3K

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Yesavg 82.7¢	$23.0K	$26.8K	+$3.8K	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
shineforever	Yesavg 39.1¢	$5.0K	$12.2K	+$7.2K	58% 83-61 (144)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 37¢	$4.2K	$10.8K	+$6.6K	83% 81-17 (98)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 68.8¢	$9.6K	$4.5K	+$3.8K	60% 911-595 (1506)
BT btna	Yesavg 40.1¢	$1.4K	$3.3K	+$1.9K	71% 42-17 (59)
xxNyx	Yesavg 94.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$3.49	82% 1794-403 (2197)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 15.9¢	$2.5K	$722.6	$-1.8K	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
└ No leg	Noavg 15.9¢	$2.4K	$557.49	$-1.8K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 91¢	$153.47	$165.11	+$9.61
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 56.6¢	$5.0K	$330.12	$-4.5K	49% 6195-6328 (12523)
BA BayupatiCTR	Noavg 62.1¢	$1.9K	$118.78	$-1.8K	49% 254-267 (521)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 2.1¢	$105.24	$116.92	+$969.95	47% 1679-1862 (3541)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 25.6¢	$1.2K	$116.77	-$502.83	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 60.5¢	$1.6K	$94.03	$-1.4K	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 23.7¢	$690.48	$86.4	-$464.89	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 70¢	$1.1K	$59.53	$-1.1K	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
E4 e46m3ARB<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$322.63	$57.55	+$961.01	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
└ No leg	Noavg 5.6¢	$44.57	$31.82	+$921.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.8¢	$5.83	$25.73	+$39.95
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 75¢	$1.1K	$55.5	$-1.1K	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$40.38	$29.2	-$11.18	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$42	$22.2	-$19.8	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 11.9¢	$96.81	$21.62	-$30.68	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR	Noavg 13.8¢	$147.32	$19.78	-$48.29	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 38.4¢	$181.01	$18.39	-$162.62	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$84.72	$8.89	-$33.8	40% 1032-1567 (2599)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$178.18	$7.41	-$32.68	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$58.8	$3.11	-$55.69	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 8.1¢	$41.41	$2.87	-$3.41	44% 6442-8142 (14584)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$22,986.59

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$4,957.9

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$4,166.1

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$9,602.89

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

btna

Yes

Invested

$1,364.69

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$1,408.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.49

Record

82%

1794-403 (2197)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$2,541.8

Value

$722.6

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Both legs:

No$2,388.3315.9¢$-1.8K

Yes$153.4791¢+$9.61

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$5,046.44

Value

$330.12

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

49%

6195-6328 (12523)

BayupatiCTR

Invested

$1,892.79

Value

$118.78

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

49%

254-267 (521)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$105.24

Value

$116.92

PnL

+$969.95

Record

47%

1679-1862 (3541)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$1,169.16

Value

$116.77

PnL

-$502.83

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,554.53

Value

$94.03

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$690.48

Value

$86.4

PnL

-$464.89

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,126.25

Value

$59.53

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

e46m3ARB<$100

Invested

$322.63

Value

$57.55

PnL

+$961.01

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

Both legs:

No$44.575.6¢+$921.06

Yes$5.8321.8¢+$39.95

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,125

Value

$55.5

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$40.38

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$11.18

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$19.8

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$96.81

Value

$21.62

PnL

-$30.68

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR

Invested

$147.32

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$48.29

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$18.39

PnL

-$162.62

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$84.72

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$33.8

Record

40%

1032-1567 (2599)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Invested

$178.18

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$32.68

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$58.8

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$55.69

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$41.41

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$3.41

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 27 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.