Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 20 of 31 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw?

20 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 2.9¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 6

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 65%

Total Value

$48.8K

Combined PnL

$13.5K

Smart Money Entry

38.6¢ → 2.9¢

-92% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 31 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$44.5K

Total Shares46,333

Combined PnL+$31.3K

No20 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares55,129

Combined PnL$-17.8K

Yes — 35%No — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 49.5¢	$8.7K	$16.9K	+$8.2K	71% 42-17 (59)
JohnLKellyJr	Yesavg 21.7¢	$3.8K	$9.0K	+$10.8K	53% 1314-1177 (2491)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 20.7¢	$1.9K	$8.9K	+$7.1K	75% 110-36 (146)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 26¢	$780	$2.9K	+$2.1K	83% 81-17 (98)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 29.6¢	$5.1K	$2.5K	$-2.5K	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 84.9¢	$5.9K	$2.1K	+$851.71	60% 911-595 (1506)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 24.5¢	$505.28	$2.0K	+$1.5K	63% 179-107 (286)
xxNyx	Yesavg 86.3¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	+$364.68	82% 1800-403 (2203)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 50.8¢	$15.2K	$1.2K	$-14.4K	50% 525-521 (1046)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39.4¢	$175.41	$427.07	+$257	52% 173-159 (332)
DI dips.	Yesavg 87.9¢	$378.35	$416	+$37.65	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 2.6¢	$167.34	$181.29	+$882.18	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 24.5¢	$30.05	$119.22	+$89.17	59% 3711-2579 (6290)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 80.4¢	$2.0K	$84.96	$-1.6K	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 18¢	$461.08	$74.5	-$255.72	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 6.9¢	$897.3	$71.86	+$218.98	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$48.64	$48	-$0.64	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 22.4¢	$181.01	$31.04	-$149.97	63% 712-413 (1125)
morito181<$100	Yesavg 96.1¢	$14.64	$14.71	+$0.08	61% 860-552 (1412)
ME merodCTR	Noavg 7.9¢	$110.51	$14.44	-$10.17	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 3.7¢	$66.44	$10.88	-$1.14	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR	Noavg 17.1¢	$378.23	$9.83	-$32.25	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 30.5¢	$160.63	$7.32	-$58.31	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Noavg 27.1¢	$244.7	$6.77	-$54.39	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$6.51	$4.5	-$2	40% 1048-1577 (2625)

btna

Yes

Invested

$8,695.2

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

JohnLKellyJr

Yes

Invested

$3,786.06

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$10.8K

Record

53%

1314-1177 (2491)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$1,918.06

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$780

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$5,092.41

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$5,939.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$851.71

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$505.28

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

63%

179-107 (286)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$3,076.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$364.68

Record

82%

1800-403 (2203)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$15,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-14.4K

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$175.41

Value

$427.07

PnL

+$257

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$378.35

Value

$416

PnL

+$37.65

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$167.34

Value

$181.29

PnL

+$882.18

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$30.05

Value

$119.22

PnL

+$89.17

Record

59%

3711-2579 (6290)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,018.25

Value

$84.96

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$461.08

Value

$74.5

PnL

-$255.72

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$897.3

Value

$71.86

PnL

+$218.98

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$48.64

Value

$48

PnL

-$0.64

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$31.04

PnL

-$149.97

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

morito181<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.64

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

merodCTR

Invested

$110.51

Value

$14.44

PnL

-$10.17

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$66.44

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$1.14

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR

Invested

$378.23

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$32.25

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$160.63

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$58.31

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Invested

$244.7

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$54.39

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$2

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 31 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.1%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2346.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

2446.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.