Will Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw?

7 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 97¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 5

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

$7.8K

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 97.3¢

+78% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 28 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares28,433

Combined PnL+$12.7K

No21 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares22,795

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 30.8¢	$2.8K	$9.0K	+$6.1K	62% 179-108 (287)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 82.3¢	$9.8K	$6.9K	+$1.8K	60% 911-595 (1506)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$10.5K	$4.0K	$-6.5K	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
└ No leg	Noavg 15.2¢	$9.6K	$2.9K	$-6.6K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 87.7¢	$933.67	$1.0K	+$86.75
DI dips.	Yesavg 77¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$535.63	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 39.3¢	$1.5K	$3.8K	+$2.2K	83% 81-17 (98)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39.6¢	$1.1K	$2.8K	+$1.6K	52% 173-159 (332)
xxNyx	Yesavg 89.5¢	$2.8K	$1.1K	+$248.29	82% 1801-403 (2204)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658ARB<$100	Noavg 1.6¢	$115.17	$363.91	+$2.3K	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.2¢	$15.07	$237.48	+$233.88
└ No leg	Noavg 1.6¢	$44.29	$126.42	+$2.0K
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 65.7¢	$96.12	$247.49	+$151.37	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 17.3¢	$767.11	$196.07	-$527.85	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 57.9¢	$2.3K	$184.27	$-2.0K	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 57.8¢	$1.5K	$120.44	$-1.4K	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 11.4¢	$547.88	$118.4	-$160.9	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 5.8¢	$534.37	$114.96	+$395.32	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 67.1¢	$2.3K	$92.22	$-1.2K	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$63.46	$63.25	-$0.22	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3.3¢	$36.7	$52.61	+$15.91	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$80.53	$47.55	+$245.89	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$181.01	$15.05	-$165.96	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 14.6¢	$114.65	$13.23	-$27.95	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$76.75	$11.32	-$11.32	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$74.03	$10.16	-$22.97	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 5.9¢	$12.09	$8.01	-$2.11	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 8.5¢	$5.28	$5.81	+$0.53	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$50.61	$5.73	-$4.59	40% 1050-1578 (2628)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$2,837.91

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

62%

179-108 (287)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$9,781.44

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$10,496.89

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

Both legs:

No$9,563.2215.2¢$-6.6K

Yes$933.6787.7¢+$86.75

dips.

Yes

Invested

$3,437.52

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$535.63

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$1,520.39

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$1,142.93

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$2,788.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$248.29

Record

82%

1801-403 (2204)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658ARB<$100

Invested

$115.17

Value

$363.91

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

Both legs:

Yes$15.076.2¢+$233.88

No$44.291.6¢+$2.0K

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$96.12

Value

$247.49

PnL

+$151.37

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$767.11

Value

$196.07

PnL

-$527.85

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$2,281.02

Value

$184.27

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,533.93

Value

$120.44

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$547.88

Value

$118.4

PnL

-$160.9

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$534.37

Value

$114.96

PnL

+$395.32

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,349.98

Value

$92.22

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$63.46

Value

$63.25

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$52.61

PnL

+$15.91

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$80.53

Value

$47.55

PnL

+$245.89

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$15.05

PnL

-$165.96

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$114.65

Value

$13.23

PnL

-$27.95

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$76.75

Value

$11.32

PnL

-$11.32

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$74.03

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$22.97

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$12.09

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$2.11

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.53

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$50.61

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$4.59

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 28 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.