Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

18 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $109K held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$108.6K

Combined PnL

$7.7K

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 99.1¢

+18% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 27 top traders (67%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$105.8K

Total Shares113,358

Combined PnL+$17.8K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares30,915

Combined PnL$-10.0K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
morito181	Noavg 92¢	$24.3K	$24.3K	-$0.07	61% 871-555 (1426)
shineforever	Noavg 89.6¢	$20.6K	$23.0K	+$2.4K	58% 87-64 (151)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 80¢	$16.1K	$10.7K	+$1.9K	58% 12052-8655 (20707)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 86¢	$9.8K	$9.2K	+$611.87	42% 3191-4365 (7556)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Noavg 94.8¢	$8.6K	$8.3K	-$250.25	83% 89-18 (107)
DI dips.	Noavg 89.7¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$758.01	47% 10585-12110 (22695)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 74¢	$6.7K	$5.6K	+$1.3K	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 8.1¢	$1.2K	$4.7K	+$9.0K	39% 1105-1735 (2840)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 94.1¢	$5.1K	$4.4K	-$71.73	61% 930-602 (1532)
xxNyx	Noavg 96.9¢	$4.6K	$3.5K	-$168.09	82% 1810-404 (2214)
HR HRAImail-.-	Noavg 34¢	$786.67	$2.7K	+$2.0K	— 16-3 (19)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 73.4¢	$5.6K	$2.4K	$-1.8K	51% 25600-24316 (49916)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$311.97	51% 174-170 (344)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$4.6K	$216.07	$-4.4K	50% 21104-21351 (42455)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 84.5¢	$1.0K	$198.49	-$1.33	55% 4498-3708 (8206)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 85.5¢	$873.64	$95.31	+$13.1	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 67.6¢	$577.35	$87.68	+$0.55	41% 1160-1663 (2823)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$1.2K	$39.99	-$866.76	48% 60745-65398 (126143)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 61.1¢	$3.8K	$36.32	$-1.5K	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 56.9¢	$686.14	$18.4	-$667.74	49% 6273-6431 (12704)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.2K	$16.8	-$3.24	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$15.55	$14.52	-$1.03	77% 12520-3844 (16364)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$23.81	$12.27	-$11.54	47% 11658-13336 (24994)
BA BayupatiCTR	Yesavg 49.9¢	$678.59	$6.62	-$659.54	49% 259-270 (529)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 72.1¢	$212.84	$5.46	+$0.69	52% 6362-5986 (12348)

morito181

Invested

$24,321.42

Value

$24.3K

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

871-555 (1426)

shineforever

Invested

$20,591.34

Value

$23.0K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

58%

87-64 (151)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$16,112.71

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

58%

12052-8655 (20707)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$9,829.8

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$611.87

Record

42%

3191-4365 (7556)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Invested

$8,584.22

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$250.25

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

dips.

Invested

$7,265.53

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$758.01

Record

47%

10585-12110 (22695)

cigarettes

Invested

$6,658.93

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$1,157.95

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

39%

1105-1735 (2840)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$5,137.48

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$71.73

Record

61%

930-602 (1532)

xxNyx

Invested

$4,640.87

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$168.09

Record

82%

1810-404 (2214)

HRAImail-.-

Invested

$786.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

16-3 (19)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,568.86

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

25600-24316 (49916)

roscoff

Invested

$1,341.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$311.97

Record

51%

174-170 (344)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,617.77

Value

$216.07

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

50%

21104-21351 (42455)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$1,000.93

Value

$198.49

PnL

-$1.33

Record

55%

4498-3708 (8206)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$873.64

Value

$95.31

PnL

+$13.1

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$577.35

Value

$87.68

PnL

+$0.55

Record

41%

1160-1663 (2823)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,230.16

Value

$39.99

PnL

-$866.76

Record

48%

60745-65398 (126143)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,766.03

Value

$36.32

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$686.14

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$667.74

Record

49%

6273-6431 (12704)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,199.82

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$3.24

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$1.03

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.81

Value

$12.27

PnL

-$11.54

Record

47%

11658-13336 (24994)

BayupatiCTR

Yes

Invested

$678.59

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$659.54

Record

49%

259-270 (529)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$212.84

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.69

Record

52%

6362-5986 (12348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

18 of 27 top traders (67%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.