Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 35 of 35 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
35 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $74 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
35
Yes 100%
$74.2
$-1.6K
1.1¢ → 0.1¢
-96% since entry · 34 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
35 of 35 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)35 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
35 traders
Top 2 hold 29%
Freshness
Late
5075h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $196.74 | $12.17 | -$184.57 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $246.08 | $9.12 | -$236.95 | 39% 179-277 (456) |
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222CTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $159.02 | $6.72 | -$152.31 | — 0-3 (3) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $178.8 | $6.62 | -$172.18 | 56% 49-38 (87) |
 tetroseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $29.68 | $6.08 | -$23.59 | 0% 0-89 (89) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $126.79 | $4.69 | -$122.1 | 81% 65-15 (80) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $122.05 | $4.52 | -$117.54 | 77% 44-13 (57) |
MI mildwindow27CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $105.43 | $3.96 | -$101.47 | 8% 3-37 (40) |
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $68.21 | $2.52 | -$65.68 | 9% 15-150 (165) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $51.97 | $1.92 | -$50.05 | 0% 0-528 (528) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $50.28 | $1.86 | -$48.42 | 0% 0-116 (116) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $49.68 | $1.84 | -$47.84 | 0% 0-528 (528) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $49.53 | $1.83 | -$47.7 | 15% 123-693 (816) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $44.37 | $1.64 | -$42.73 | 0% 0-495 (495) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $33.05 | $1.22 | -$31.82 | 6% 6-91 (97) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $27.07 | $1 | -$26.06 | — 0-1 (1) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.64 | $0.91 | -$23.73 | 0% 0-457 (457) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $18.66 | $0.69 | -$17.97 | 0% 0-394 (394) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $18.58 | $0.69 | -$17.89 | — 0-5 (5) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $17.83 | $0.66 | -$17.18 | 0% 0-438 (438) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $11.01 | $0.62 | -$10.38 | — 6-5 (11) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $15.86 | $0.59 | -$15.27 | — |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $9.36 | $0.42 | -$8.94 | — 2-0 (2) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $10.36 | $0.38 | -$9.98 | — 0-2 (2) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $9.07 | $0.34 | -$8.73 | — 11-2 (13) |
Invested
$196.74
Value
$12.17
PnL
-$184.57
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
Invested
$246.08
Value
$9.12
PnL
-$236.95
Record
39%
179-277 (456)
Invested
$159.02
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$152.31
Record
—
0-3 (3)
balthazarCTRInvested
$178.8
Value
$6.62
PnL
-$172.18
Record
56%
49-38 (87)
tetroseCTR<$100Invested
$29.68
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$23.59
Record
0%
0-89 (89)
Invested
$126.79
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$122.1
Record
81%
65-15 (80)
LucerysCTRInvested
$122.05
Value
$4.52
PnL
-$117.54
Record
77%
44-13 (57)
Invested
$105.43
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$101.47
Record
8%
3-37 (40)
Invested
$68.21
Value
$2.52
PnL
-$65.68
Record
9%
15-150 (165)
Invested
$51.97
Value
$1.92
PnL
-$50.05
Record
0%
0-528 (528)
Invested
$50.28
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$48.42
Record
0%
0-116 (116)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$47.84
Record
0%
0-528 (528)
Invested
$49.53
Value
$1.83
PnL
-$47.7
Record
15%
123-693 (816)
Invested
$44.37
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$42.73
Record
0%
0-495 (495)
Invested
$33.05
Value
$1.22
PnL
-$31.82
Record
6%
6-91 (97)
Invested
$27.07
Value
$1
PnL
-$26.06
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$23.73
Record
0%
0-457 (457)
Invested
$18.66
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$17.97
Record
0%
0-394 (394)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$17.89
Record
—
0-5 (5)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$17.18
Record
0%
0-438 (438)
Invested
$11.01
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$10.38
Record
—
6-5 (11)
Invested
$15.86
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$15.27
Record
—
Invested
$9.36
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$8.94
Record
—
2-0 (2)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.36
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$9.98
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$9.07
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$8.73
Record
—
11-2 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bigggggggg
CTRYes — $12.17
e46m3
CTRYes — $9.12
forinnerpsandr1x11222
CTRYes — $6.72
balthazar
CTRYes — $6.62
tetrose
CTRYes — $6.08
qwen300.fund
CTRYes — $4.69
Lucerys
CTRYes — $4.52
mildwindow27
CTRYes — $3.96
0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2
CTRYes — $2.52
kaxel78
CTRYes — $1.92