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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)34% (439–840, n=1279)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (877–458, n=1335)
Consensus PnL$119K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #30PM monthly #1PM monthly #12
Sides with the consensus63% (124 of 197 open)71% (49 of 69 open)74% (26 of 35 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topicSoccer −1 pts, n=687—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won59% of 3904 at avg 59¢, ROI +1%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢38% (won 3% of 1478)10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢3% (won 43% of 121)36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 70% of 163)35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up55% (won 98% of 2142)19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225BreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $278Yes $77KNo $1.9M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $315No $187KYes $819K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $651No $42KNo $235K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $70No $1.4M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $327KYes $604K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $287KNo $41K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $76Yes $88K—
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $319Yes $36K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $117Yes $33K—
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $7Yes $21K—
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $81Yes $4.2K—
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $325Yes $1.2K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $973—Yes $462K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $358No $125K—
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $1.1KNo $22K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $757Yes $12K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.6KNo $7.1K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $12No $3.2K
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $369No $2.4K—
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $6No $2.0K—
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $189No $747—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $275No $607—