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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| cigarettes | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10070–10653, n=20723) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 61% (495–321, n=816) |
| Consensus PnL | -$71K | $5.6M | $11.0M | -$352K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (344 of 509 open) | no open consensus position | 86% (134 of 156 open) | 75% (6 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | — | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
18 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.