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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| cigarettes | surfandturf | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10105–10685, n=20790) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 50% (10–10, n=20) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $633K | $4.1M | $5.3M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (320 of 475 open) | 0% (0 of 2 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (149 of 165 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
17 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.