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PolyConsensus

Polymarket smart money: what top traders hold

Markets where at least 5 of about 2,000 top Polymarket traders hold a position: the side most are on, the price and the money behind it.

Live prices

Active markets

Consensus wins

401812

settled in its favour

Consensus losses

154649

settled against it

Win rate

72%

won 401812 of 556461

Traders' own P/L

+$257.5M

their results, not yours

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Top consensus markets on Polymarket right now

PolyConsensus follows around 2,000 of the best Polymarket traders and shows what they hold. A market gets a consensus when five or more of them have a position in it — 1,381 markets do right now. For each one the list below gives the side most of them hold, how many of the tracked traders are on it, the market's price for that side and the money held. It is a record of who holds what, not a forecast: read how it works for what the numbers do and do not mean. Prices as of .

  1. Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?140 of 159 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 95¢ · $5.2M held
  2. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?87 of 136 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 61¢ · $3.9M held
  3. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?110 of 132 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $4.2M held
  4. Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?91 of 111 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 71¢ · $951K held
  5. Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?84 of 104 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 95¢ · $2.9M held
  6. Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?70 of 90 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 71¢ · $1.2M held
  7. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House69 of 84 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 72¢ · $5.2M held
  8. Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?62 of 80 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 73¢ · $957K held
  9. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?71 of 80 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $3.3M held
  10. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?29 of 75 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 97¢ · $4.5M held
  11. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House52 of 71 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $1.8M held
  12. Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?48 of 69 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 72¢ · $528K held
  13. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?45 of 68 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (66%) · Yes at 99¢ · $770K held
  14. Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?36 of 60 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 68¢ · $309K held
  15. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?45 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 77¢ · $708K held
  16. Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?30 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 68¢ · $307K held
  17. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?38 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 43¢ · $549K held
  18. Iran leadership change by December 31?41 of 52 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 87¢ · $473K held
  19. Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?21 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 49¢ · $239K held
  20. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28 of 52 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 89¢ · $578K held
  21. Trump out as President before 2027?46 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $2.0M held
  22. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?48 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 97¢ · $1.1M held
  23. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?32 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 87¢ · $376K held
  24. Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?41 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 71¢ · $335K held