Polymarket smart money: what top traders hold

Markets where at least 5 of about 2,000 top Polymarket traders hold a position: the side most are on, the price and the money behind it.

Live prices

Active markets

Consensus wins

401904

settled in its favour

Consensus losses

154732

settled against it

Win rate

72%

won 401904 of 556636

Traders' own P/L

+$257.5M

their results, not yours

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We follow top traders

Around 2,000 wallets: Polymarket's monthly profit top 1,000 plus a hand-picked list, read from public chain data.

5+ holding = a consensus

When five or more hold a market, we show the side most of them hold. A head count, not a probability.

Check the price first

The crowd can be early or wrong, and the price may already say so. It is information, not advice.

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Top consensus markets on Polymarket right now

PolyConsensus follows around 2,000 of the best Polymarket traders and shows what they hold. A market gets a consensus when five or more of them have a position in it — 1,594 markets do right now. For each one the list below gives the side most of them hold, how many of the tracked traders are on it, the market's price for that side and the money held. It is a record of who holds what, not a forecast: read how it works for what the numbers do and do not mean. Prices as of 2026-11-01 13:42 UTC.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?140 of 161 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (87%) · Yes at 95¢ · $5.2M held
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?88 of 136 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 64¢ · $4.0M held
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?110 of 132 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 84¢ · $4.2M held
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?91 of 113 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (81%) · Yes at 71¢ · $955K held
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?85 of 107 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 95¢ · $2.9M held
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?71 of 91 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 71¢ · $1.2M held
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House71 of 87 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 72¢ · $5.2M held
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?63 of 83 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 73¢ · $953K held
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?72 of 81 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $3.3M held
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?30 of 76 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 97¢ · $4.5M held
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House54 of 74 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $1.8M held
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?49 of 71 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 72¢ · $531K held
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?46 of 69 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $766K held
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?40 of 62 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (65%) · Yes at 44¢ · $568K held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner32 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (55%) · Team Spirit at 97¢ · $226K held
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?35 of 60 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 68¢ · $303K held
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?45 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 77¢ · $700K held
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?30 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 68¢ · $303K held
Iran leadership change by December 31?40 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 87¢ · $474K held
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?21 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 49¢ · $238K held
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?50 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 97¢ · $1.1M held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?30 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 89¢ · $580K held
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?34 of 52 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 87¢ · $378K held
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?38 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 84¢ · $311K held