Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$55.71

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares564

Combined PnL-$111.31

Up10 traders

Total Value$301.54

Total Shares302

Combined PnL+$55.6

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 86.6¢	$652.21	$527.83	-$124.39	56% 14907-11713 (26620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.9¢	$194.88	—	-$194.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.6¢	$457.33	$527.83	+$70.49
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$403.86	$363.74	-$40.12	50% 5575-5636 (11211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.8¢	$140.6	—	-$140.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.4¢	$263.26	$363.74	+$100.48
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$189.14	$162.61	-$26.53	64% 58887-33445 (92332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.4¢	$48.49	—	-$48.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.5¢	$140.66	$162.61	+$21.96
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$232.33	$231.39	-$0.94	55% 7780-6363 (14143)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$161.93	$231.39	+$69.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$70.4	—	-$70.4
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 77.1¢	$202.08	$169.14	-$32.94	55% 8953-7389 (16342)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.1¢	$130.37	$169.14	+$38.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$71.72	—	-$71.72
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 90.2¢	$163.43	$146.86	-$16.57	60% 12572-8347 (20919)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.2¢	$132.51	$146.86	+$14.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.7¢	$30.92	—	-$30.92
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$35.99	—	-$35.99	51% 17196-16701 (33897)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 11.4¢	$27.41	—	-$27.41	46% 38658-45730 (84388)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$148.5	$150	+$1.5	74% 103028-36547 (139575)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 7.5¢	$9	—	-$9	57% 12754-9480 (22234)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$26.24	—	-$26.24	65% 112549-59391 (171940)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 42¢	$16.8	$40	+$23.2	58% 61065-44595 (105660)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$13.84	$16.14	+$2.3	55% 45979-38324 (84303)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$3.24	—	-$3.24	49% 78487-82044 (160531)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 49¢	$16.83	$34.34	+$17.51	58% 38470-27559 (66029)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 93¢	$27.72	$29.81	+$2.09	66% 127066-65377 (192443)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$7.7	$15.2	+$7.5	55% 18348-14925 (33273)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 15.1¢	$1.71	—	-$1.71	61% 96010-60519 (156529)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 17.3¢	$1.28	—	-$1.28	52% 91284-85731 (177015)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 76¢	$4.6	$6.05	+$1.45	64% 4309-2376 (6685)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	56% 58613-45263 (103876)
RO Rock.San<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	89% 12035-1416 (13451)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$1.17	—	-$1.17	62% 44267-27240 (71507)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$7.23	—	-$5.27	64% 24825-13713 (38538)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3698-2861 (6559)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$652.21

Value

$527.83

PnL

-$124.39

Record

56%

14907-11713 (26620)

Both legs:

Down$194.8819.9¢-$194.88

Up$457.3386.6¢+$70.49

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$403.86

Value

$363.74

PnL

-$40.12

Record

50%

5575-5636 (11211)

Both legs:

Down$140.625.8¢-$140.6

Up$263.2672.4¢+$100.48

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$189.14

Value

$162.61

PnL

-$26.53

Record

64%

58887-33445 (92332)

Both legs:

Down$48.4912.4¢-$48.49

Up$140.6686.5¢+$21.96

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$232.33

Value

$231.39

PnL

-$0.94

Record

55%

7780-6363 (14143)

Both legs:

Up$161.9370¢+$69.46

Down$70.440¢-$70.4

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$202.08

Value

$169.14

PnL

-$32.94

Record

55%

8953-7389 (16342)

Both legs:

Up$130.3777.1¢+$38.77

Down$71.7259.4¢-$71.72

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$163.43

Value

$146.86

PnL

-$16.57

Record

60%

12572-8347 (20919)

Both legs:

Up$132.5190.2¢+$14.35

Down$30.9222.7¢-$30.92

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.99

Value

—

PnL

-$35.99

Record

51%

17196-16701 (33897)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.41

Value

—

PnL

-$27.41

Record

46%

38658-45730 (84388)

BoneOhio

Invested

$148.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$1.5

Record

74%

103028-36547 (139575)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$9

Record

57%

12754-9480 (22234)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.24

Value

—

PnL

-$26.24

Record

65%

112549-59391 (171940)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$40

PnL

+$23.2

Record

58%

61065-44595 (105660)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$13.84

Value

$16.14

PnL

+$2.3

Record

55%

45979-38324 (84303)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.24

Value

—

PnL

-$3.24

Record

49%

78487-82044 (160531)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$34.34

PnL

+$17.51

Record

58%

38470-27559 (66029)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$27.72

Value

$29.81

PnL

+$2.09

Record

66%

127066-65377 (192443)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

18348-14925 (33273)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.71

Value

—

PnL

-$1.71

Record

61%

96010-60519 (156529)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.28

Value

—

PnL

-$1.28

Record

52%

91284-85731 (177015)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$1.45

Record

64%

4309-2376 (6685)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

58613-45263 (103876)

Rock.San<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

89%

12035-1416 (13451)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.17

Value

—

PnL

-$1.17

Record

62%

44267-27240 (71507)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.23

Value

—

PnL

-$5.27

Record

64%

24825-13713 (38538)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3698-2861 (6559)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe02ab3d6...a15f53

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793544900

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $150

wowitsamazing

Down — $0