Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 48%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 27 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 42.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 56% 14907-11713 (26620) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $627.3 | $688.13 | +$60.83 | 50% 5575-5636 (11211) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $514.67 | $515.19 | +$0.52 | 59% 62654-43738 (106392) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 27.5¢ | $219.68 | $314.23 | +$94.55 | 51% 17196-16701 (33897) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.6¢ | $86.68 | $314.23 | +$227.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.5¢ | $132.99 | — | -$132.99 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 46.5¢ | $237.61 | $343.4 | +$105.78 | 55% 7780-6363 (14143) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $227.12 | $289.84 | +$62.72 | 55% 8953-7389 (16342) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16¢ | $46.37 | $289.84 | +$243.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $180.75 | — | -$180.75 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Upavg 80.9¢ | $236.4 | — | -$234.55 | 60% 12572-8347 (20919) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 50.3¢ | $107.09 | — | -$107.09 | 56% 8331-6467 (14798) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.5¢ | $42.79 | — | -$42.79 | 46% 38658-45730 (84388) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $85.8 | $77.34 | -$8.46 | 65% 126412-67571 (193983) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $43.18 | $65 | +$21.82 | 58% 61065-44595 (105660) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $79.87 | — | -$79.87 | 65% 112549-59391 (171940) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 38.2¢ | $29.24 | $76.54 | +$47.3 | 55% 18348-14925 (33273) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $47.75 | $45 | -$2.75 | 56% 58613-45263 (103876) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $48.65 | — | -$48.65 | 64% 40618-23301 (63919) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $66.96 | — | -$66.96 | 74% 103028-36547 (139575) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $23.75 | $30 | +$6.25 | 62% 44267-27240 (71507) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 11.9¢ | $23.37 | $42.7 | +$29.63 | 61% 96010-60519 (156529) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $17.35 | $19.25 | +$1.9 | 55% 45979-38324 (84303) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $17.8 | — | -$17.8 | 55% 24166-19500 (43666) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 91.1¢ | $24.41 | — | -$24.41 | 52% 91284-85731 (177015) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $47.81 | — | -$47.81 | 64% 24825-13713 (38538) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $3.5 | $12.96 | +$9.46 | 66% 127066-65377 (192443) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $4.48 | — | -$4.48 | 56% 2299-1791 (4090) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $5.88 | $6.26 | +$0.38 | 64% 4309-2376 (6685) |
Invested
$1,083.29
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
56%
14907-11713 (26620)
Invested
$627.3
Value
$688.13
PnL
+$60.83
Record
50%
5575-5636 (11211)
Invested
$514.67
Value
$515.19
PnL
+$0.52
Record
59%
62654-43738 (106392)
Invested
$219.68
Value
$314.23
PnL
+$94.55
Record
51%
17196-16701 (33897)
Both legs:
Invested
$237.61
Value
$343.4
PnL
+$105.78
Record
55%
7780-6363 (14143)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$227.12
Value
$289.84
PnL
+$62.72
Record
55%
8953-7389 (16342)
Both legs:
Invested
$236.4
Value
—
PnL
-$234.55
Record
60%
12572-8347 (20919)
Invested
$107.09
Value
—
PnL
-$107.09
Record
56%
8331-6467 (14798)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$42.79
Value
—
PnL
-$42.79
Record
46%
38658-45730 (84388)
Invested
$85.8
Value
$77.34
PnL
-$8.46
Record
65%
126412-67571 (193983)
Invested
$43.18
Value
$65
PnL
+$21.82
Record
58%
61065-44595 (105660)
Invested
$79.87
Value
—
PnL
-$79.87
Record
65%
112549-59391 (171940)
Invested
$29.24
Value
$76.54
PnL
+$47.3
Record
55%
18348-14925 (33273)
Invested
$47.75
Value
$45
PnL
-$2.75
Record
56%
58613-45263 (103876)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$48.65
Value
—
PnL
-$48.65
Record
64%
40618-23301 (63919)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$66.96
Value
—
PnL
-$66.96
Record
74%
103028-36547 (139575)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$23.75
Value
$30
PnL
+$6.25
Record
62%
44267-27240 (71507)
Invested
$23.37
Value
$42.7
PnL
+$29.63
Record
61%
96010-60519 (156529)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$17.35
Value
$19.25
PnL
+$1.9
Record
55%
45979-38324 (84303)
Invested
$17.8
Value
—
PnL
-$17.8
Record
55%
24166-19500 (43666)
Invested
$24.41
Value
—
PnL
-$24.41
Record
52%
91284-85731 (177015)
Invested
$47.81
Value
—
PnL
-$47.81
Record
64%
24825-13713 (38538)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$9.46
Record
66%
127066-65377 (192443)
Invested
$4.48
Value
—
PnL
-$4.48
Record
56%
2299-1791 (4090)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.88
Value
$6.26
PnL
+$0.38
Record
64%
4309-2376 (6685)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $688.13
0x50f7
Down — $515.19
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $343.4
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $77.34