Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold T1, while the market favors Bilibili Gaming (100%). 45 of 79 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner

45 of 79 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (57%) · T1 at 0.1¢ · $840K held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming>99¢T1<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

T1 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$840.2K

Combined PnL

$-244.2K

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 45 traders

Research grade

AvoidT1 at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

45 of 79 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed45 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming100%

T10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming34 traders

Total Value$539.7K

Total Shares586,865

Combined PnL+$29.0K

T145 traders

Total Value$185.8K

Total Shares1,061,541

Combined PnL$-273.2K

Bilibili Gaming — 43%T1 — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Sharky6999	Bilibili Gamingavg 99.9¢	$199.8K	$199.9K	+$100	98% 9776-204 (9980)
zb8ARB<$100	T1avg 48¢	$91.7K	$87.4K	$-4.3K	53% 668-587 (1255)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 48¢	$68.5K	$63.6K	$-5.0K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 54¢	$23.1K	$23.8K	+$643.02
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	T1avg 49.3¢	$137.6K	$60.0K	$-77.5K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
CA calculate10	Bilibili Gamingavg 75.8¢	$59.7K	$39.1K	+$6.7K	54% 1381-1196 (2577)
BR brobrobrobrobro	Bilibili Gamingavg 67.3¢	$34.2K	$33.8K	-$443.75	62% 264-161 (425)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502	Bilibili Gamingavg 48.3¢	$15.8K	$32.7K	+$16.9K	35% 245-447 (692)
25 254321758	Bilibili Gamingavg 85.2¢	$63.2K	$31.3K	+$1.4K	68% 475-220 (695)
cryingbabydicer87	Bilibili Gamingavg 97.5¢	$76.4K	$24.3K	$-5.9K	51% 14659-13985 (28644)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	T1avg 46.7¢	$40.0K	$23.1K	+$2.6K	54% 27-23 (50)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Bilibili Gamingavg 66.3¢	$21.1K	$22.7K	+$1.6K	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
UB ubetteruuuu	Bilibili Gamingavg 53.9¢	$14.2K	$22.0K	+$7.8K	48% 215-230 (445)
LI LinkE5CTR	T1avg 38.3¢	$23.5K	$21.6K	$-1.9K	47% 770-855 (1625)
AS asuka7	Bilibili Gamingavg 85.2¢	$21.4K	$20.5K	-$921.25	58% 1008-717 (1725)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.4¢	$13.3K	$16.1K	+$2.8K	58% 2201-1607 (3808)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.4¢	$12.6K	$12.4K	-$225
└ T1 leg	T1avg 9¢	$658.69	$3.7K	+$3.0K
vtcchampion52CTR	T1avg 45.8¢	$90.1K	$15.2K	$-74.9K	49% 1304-1349 (2653)
TE TeGeeLPCTR	T1avg 39.1¢	$19.2K	$15.0K	$-4.2K	53% 83-75 (158)
TA takeormake	Bilibili Gamingavg 63.1¢	$15.2K	$14.4K	-$809.98	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
AO aomendushen008	Bilibili Gamingavg 92.6¢	$10.6K	$11.4K	+$794.98	50% 1008-1021 (2029)
31 319113331313111	Bilibili Gamingavg 73.6¢	$11.7K	$11.3K	-$388.87	58% 475-343 (818)
KateBollinger	Bilibili Gamingavg 53.3¢	$69.9K	$11.0K	+$1.8K	68% 1883-904 (2787)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	T1avg 47.4¢	$40.2K	$9.7K	-$542.5	51% 1025-997 (2022)
ET Ethanael02	Bilibili Gamingavg 55.7¢	$13.3K	$9.5K	$-3.7K	65% 127-68 (195)
arjennnnn	Bilibili Gamingavg 87.4¢	$13.1K	$7.6K	$-5.5K	68% 866-412 (1278)
dodsterbotCTR	T1avg 46.5¢	$21.7K	$7.3K	$-6.5K	46% 672-791 (1463)
GrokEnjoyerARB<$100	T1avg 46.6¢	$6.5K	$6.7K	+$166.65	50% 390-389 (779)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 46.6¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$305.53
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$138.88

Sharky6999

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$199,800

Value

$199.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

98%

9776-204 (9980)

zb8ARB<$100

Invested

$91,696.46

Value

$87.4K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

53%

668-587 (1255)

Both legs:

T1$68,547.7748¢$-5.0K

Bilibili Gaming$23,148.6854¢+$643.02

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$137,574

Value

$60.0K

PnL

$-77.5K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

calculate10

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$59,673.85

Value

$39.1K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

54%

1381-1196 (2577)

brobrobrobrobro

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$34,211.68

Value

$33.8K

PnL

-$443.75

Record

62%

264-161 (425)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$15,795.21

Value

$32.7K

PnL

+$16.9K

Record

35%

245-447 (692)

254321758

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$63,169.07

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

68%

475-220 (695)

cryingbabydicer87

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$76,400.78

Value

$24.3K

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

51%

14659-13985 (28644)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

Invested

$40,033.07

Value

$23.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

27-23 (50)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$21,096.18

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

ubetteruuuu

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$14,207.18

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

LinkE5CTR

Invested

$23,455.81

Value

$21.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

47%

770-855 (1625)

asuka7

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$21,432.92

Value

$20.5K

PnL

-$921.25

Record

58%

1008-717 (1725)

fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$13,258.69

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

58%

2201-1607 (3808)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$12,60050.4¢-$225

T1$658.699¢+$3.0K

vtcchampion52CTR

Invested

$90,061.23

Value

$15.2K

PnL

$-74.9K

Record

49%

1304-1349 (2653)

TeGeeLPCTR

Invested

$19,249.6

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

53%

83-75 (158)

takeormake

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$15,237.94

Value

$14.4K

PnL

-$809.98

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

aomendushen008

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10,599.42

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$794.98

Record

50%

1008-1021 (2029)

319113331313111

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$11,677.27

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$388.87

Record

58%

475-343 (818)

KateBollinger

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$69,919.75

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

68%

1883-904 (2787)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Invested

$40,242.46

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$542.5

Record

51%

1025-997 (2022)

Ethanael02

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$13,296.06

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

65%

127-68 (195)

arjennnnn

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$13,111.77

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

68%

866-412 (1278)

dodsterbotCTR

Invested

$21,749.99

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

46%

672-791 (1463)

GrokEnjoyerARB<$100

Invested

$6,510.46

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$166.65

Record

50%

390-389 (779)

Both legs:

T1$3,621.8646.6¢+$305.53

Bilibili Gaming$2,888.652¢-$138.88

Research grade

AvoidT1 at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

45 of 79 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed45 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.