Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

19 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 98¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$4.4K

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 98.1¢

+37% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares19,508

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$314.78

Total Shares9,323

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.8¢	$5.7K	$5.2K	+$134.61	60% 911-595 (1506)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 11¢	$539.96	$2.9K	+$3.3K	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 70.7¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$770.08	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 76.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$381.12	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 77.4¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$511.45	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 55.7¢	$3.0K	$852.76	+$1.2K	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
xxNyx	Noavg 96¢	$959.99	$810.38	+$23.78	82% 1800-403 (2203)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 88.7¢	$786.57	$638.8	+$49.2	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
morito181	Noavg 96.5¢	$204.23	$207.62	+$3.39	61% 860-552 (1412)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$401.08	$89.34	-$308.35	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$841.42	$83.07	-$749.73	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
DI dips.<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$59.54	$81.32	+$21.78	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 63.1¢	$323.31	$75.41	+$22.77	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$74.67	-$931.02	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
KO korda77	Noavg 92.3¢	$472.58	$74.54	+$2.92	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 79.4¢	$280.44	$69.3	+$13.24	39% 1054-1655 (2709)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 75.7¢	$346.69	$55.56	+$12.67	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$10.2	$41.4	+$31.2	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 85.8¢	$200.86	$32.19	+$3.45	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
ME merod	Noavg 92.2¢	$405.64	$25.45	+$1.28	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 66.1¢	$332.56	$22.31	+$6.96	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 94.2¢	$361.39	$18.25	+$0.36	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$181.01	$14.69	-$166.32	63% 712-413 (1125)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$7.65	$8.92	+$14.78	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.19	$4.17	-$0.02	39% 5641-8700 (14341)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$5,684.89

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$134.61

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$539.96

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

cigarettes

Invested

$2,050.26

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$770.08

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$2,459.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$381.12

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,483.42

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$511.45

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

e46m3

Invested

$3,027.01

Value

$852.76

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

xxNyx

Invested

$959.99

Value

$810.38

PnL

+$23.78

Record

82%

1800-403 (2203)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$786.57

Value

$638.8

PnL

+$49.2

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

morito181

Invested

$204.23

Value

$207.62

PnL

+$3.39

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.08

Value

$89.34

PnL

-$308.35

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$841.42

Value

$83.07

PnL

-$749.73

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

dips.<$100

Invested

$59.54

Value

$81.32

PnL

+$21.78

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$323.31

Value

$75.41

PnL

+$22.77

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,005.69

Value

$74.67

PnL

-$931.02

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

korda77

Invested

$472.58

Value

$74.54

PnL

+$2.92

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$280.44

Value

$69.3

PnL

+$13.24

Record

39%

1054-1655 (2709)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$346.69

Value

$55.56

PnL

+$12.67

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$41.4

PnL

+$31.2

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$200.86

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$3.45

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

merod

Invested

$405.64

Value

$25.45

PnL

+$1.28

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$332.56

Value

$22.31

PnL

+$6.96

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$361.39

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.36

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$14.69

PnL

-$166.32

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$14.78

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

5641-8700 (14341)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.