Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 33 of 34 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
33 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (97%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $65 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
34
Yes 97%
$65.15
$-1.4K
1.1¢ → 0.1¢
-96% since entry · 32 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
33 of 34 top traders (97%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)33 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
33 traders
Top 2 hold 36%
Freshness
Late
5026h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
97% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $199.77 | $12.2 | -$187.56 | 84% 21-4 (25) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $282.72 | $10.48 | -$272.23 | 39% 179-277 (456) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $187.98 | $6.96 | -$181.03 | 56% 49-38 (87) |
 tetroseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $29.68 | $6.08 | -$23.59 | 0% 0-89 (89) |
MI mildwindow27CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $125.26 | $4.69 | -$120.57 | 8% 3-37 (40) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $88.06 | $3.26 | -$84.8 | 81% 65-15 (80) |
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $1.99 | $2 | +$0.01 | 46% 51-59 (110) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $51.97 | $1.92 | -$50.05 | 0% 0-528 (528) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $50.28 | $1.86 | -$48.42 | 0% 0-116 (116) |
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $49.74 | $1.84 | -$47.9 | 9% 15-150 (165) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $49.68 | $1.84 | -$47.84 | 0% 0-528 (528) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $49.53 | $1.83 | -$47.7 | 15% 123-693 (816) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $44.37 | $1.64 | -$42.73 | 0% 0-495 (495) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $36.43 | $1.35 | -$35.09 | 77% 44-13 (57) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $33.05 | $1.22 | -$31.82 | 6% 6-91 (97) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.64 | $0.91 | -$23.73 | 0% 0-457 (457) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $18.69 | $0.74 | -$17.94 | — 11-2 (13) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $18.66 | $0.69 | -$17.97 | 0% 0-394 (394) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $17.83 | $0.66 | -$17.18 | 0% 0-438 (438) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $15.86 | $0.59 | -$15.27 | — |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $9.36 | $0.42 | -$8.94 | — 2-0 (2) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $10.36 | $0.38 | -$9.98 | — 0-2 (2) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $7.99 | $0.3 | -$7.69 | — 1-1 (2) |
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $6.81 | $0.25 | -$6.56 | 0% 0-94 (94) |
 BeneGesseritVoiceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.77 | $0.25 | -$3.52 | — 0-1 (1) |
Invested
$199.77
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$187.56
Record
84%
21-4 (25)
Invested
$282.72
Value
$10.48
PnL
-$272.23
Record
39%
179-277 (456)
balthazarCTRInvested
$187.98
Value
$6.96
PnL
-$181.03
Record
56%
49-38 (87)
tetroseCTR<$100Invested
$29.68
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$23.59
Record
0%
0-89 (89)
Invested
$125.26
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$120.57
Record
8%
3-37 (40)
Invested
$88.06
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$84.8
Record
81%
65-15 (80)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
51-59 (110)
Invested
$51.97
Value
$1.92
PnL
-$50.05
Record
0%
0-528 (528)
Invested
$50.28
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$48.42
Record
0%
0-116 (116)
Invested
$49.74
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$47.9
Record
9%
15-150 (165)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$47.84
Record
0%
0-528 (528)
Invested
$49.53
Value
$1.83
PnL
-$47.7
Record
15%
123-693 (816)
Invested
$44.37
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$42.73
Record
0%
0-495 (495)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$36.43
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$35.09
Record
77%
44-13 (57)
Invested
$33.05
Value
$1.22
PnL
-$31.82
Record
6%
6-91 (97)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$23.73
Record
0%
0-457 (457)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$17.94
Record
—
11-2 (13)
Invested
$18.66
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$17.97
Record
0%
0-394 (394)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$17.18
Record
0%
0-438 (438)
Invested
$15.86
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$15.27
Record
—
Invested
$9.36
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$8.94
Record
—
2-0 (2)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.36
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$9.98
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$7.69
Record
—
1-1 (2)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$6.56
Record
0%
0-94 (94)
BeneGesseritVoiceCTR<$100Invested
$3.77
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$3.52
Record
—
0-1 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bigggggggg
CTRYes — $12.2
e46m3
CTRYes — $10.48
balthazar
CTRYes — $6.96
tetrose
CTRYes — $6.08
mildwindow27
CTRYes — $4.69
qwen300.fund
CTRYes — $3.26
LetTheGoodTimesRoll
No — $2
kaxel78
CTRYes — $1.92
alex20011
CTRYes — $1.86
0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2
CTRYes — $1.84