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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579BreakTheBankCORGIIjoseph00677
Record (consensus markets)41% (407–590, n=997)45% (547–663, n=1210)61% (398–250, n=648)53% (10–9, n=19)
Consensus PnL$24K$11.0M$216K$5.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #373PM monthly #2PM monthly #80PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus68% (288 of 425 open)66% (42 of 64 open)0% (0 of 3 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topicSoccer −3 pts, n=104———
Settled positions, side won63% of 1801 at avg 63¢, ROI +3%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%99% of 401 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢35% (won 2% of 622)10% (won 81% of 57)9% (won 92% of 36)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢2% (won 44% of 45)36% (won 98% of 201)56% (won 99% of 224)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢3% (won 67% of 55)35% (won 99% of 196)33% (won 100% of 134)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up60% (won 99% of 1079)19% (won 100% of 109)2% (won 100% of 7)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

10 on the same side, 15 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579BreakTheBankCORGIIjoseph00677
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $4Yes $287K——
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $191No $187K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $7Yes $102K——
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $27Yes $88K——
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $8Yes $66K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $8Yes $38K——
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $100Yes $36K——
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $8Yes $21K——
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $8Yes $10K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $8Yes $8.5K——
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $29Yes $4.2K——
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $731Yes $1.6K——
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $333Yes $1.2K——
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $421Yes $70——
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $8Yes $411——
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
same side · consensus No
No $817No $327K——
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $893No $125K——
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $57No $119K——
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $2.2KNo $42K——
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $1.1KNo $22K——
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $17No $6.9K——
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $22No $3.6K——
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $230No $2.4K——
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $615No $747——
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $130No $607——