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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HorribleWork | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (432–235, n=667) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | -$238K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #985 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 6% (1 of 17 open) | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 62% (91 of 146 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Economy −6 pts, n=36 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 70% of 615 at avg 67¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 15% of 163) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 36% of 39) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 35) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 61% (won 98% of 378) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
10 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HorribleWork | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $55K | No $411K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $14K | No $252K | — | — |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $255K | — | Steelers $5.5K |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $171K | — | Jets $192 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2.9K | Yes $169K | — | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | — | Cowboys $11K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $16 | No $40K | — | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Raiders $17K | — | Jets $400 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | — | Buccaneers $1.9K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $3.0K | — | Cowboys $1.4K |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $2.5K | No $590 | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $15 | Yes $272K | — | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $104K | — | Raiders $2.3K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $320 | Yes $77K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $1.0K | Yes $37K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $651 | No $35K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) same side · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $35K | — | Cardinals $714 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $110 | Yes $28K | — | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $24K | — | Raiders $1.1K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $20K | — | Jaguars $643 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House same side · consensus No | Yes $6.4K | Yes $1.1K | — | — |