← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| cigarettes | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10105–10685, n=20790) | 47% (13868–15346, n=29214) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $633K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (320 of 475 open) | 88% (14 of 16 open) | 90% (149 of 165 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
17 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.