Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

19 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Down (79%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$84.75

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 24 top traders (79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,878

Combined PnL+$103.29

Up5 traders

Total Value$225.56

Total Shares631

Combined PnL-$18.54

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.1¢	$846.53	$814.03	-$32.5	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63.5¢	$421.58	$477.67	+$56.09	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 74¢	$425.69	$401.46	-$24.23	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
machinelearned	Downavg 89.4¢	$208.25	$229.42	+$21.17	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 47.4¢	$76.82	$120.61	+$43.79	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 63.5¢	$93.42	$116.2	+$22.77	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$102.34	$103.91	+$1.57	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 69.9¢	$100.02	$103.3	+$3.28	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$78.8	$99.49	+$20.69	63% 1793-1073 (2866)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$93.56	$87.31	-$6.21	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$62.78	$56.61	-$6.17	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 50¢	$49.51	$54.45	+$4.94	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$40.4	$48.51	+$8.11	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$36.75	$43.01	+$6.26	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 20.6¢	$63.81	$33.41	-$30.4	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$27.35	$33.33	+$5.98	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$34.4	$32.18	-$2.23	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 90.3¢	$39.52	$32.15	-$6.74	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$24.05	$26.48	+$2.43	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 64¢	$20	$20	+$0	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 49¢	$8.07	$12.85	+$4.78	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 97¢	$7.84	$7.8	-$0.04	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 98¢	$5.88	$5.91	+$0.03	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$11.36	$2.73	-$8.63	64% 40639-23326 (63965)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$846.53

Value

$814.03

PnL

-$32.5

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$421.58

Value

$477.67

PnL

+$56.09

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$425.69

Value

$401.46

PnL

-$24.23

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$208.25

Value

$229.42

PnL

+$21.17

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$76.82

Value

$120.61

PnL

+$43.79

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$93.42

Value

$116.2

PnL

+$22.77

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$102.34

Value

$103.91

PnL

+$1.57

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$100.02

Value

$103.3

PnL

+$3.28

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR<$100

Invested

$78.8

Value

$99.49

PnL

+$20.69

Record

63%

1793-1073 (2866)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$93.56

Value

$87.31

PnL

-$6.21

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$62.78

Value

$56.61

PnL

-$6.17

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$49.51

Value

$54.45

PnL

+$4.94

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$40.4

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$8.11

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$36.75

Value

$43.01

PnL

+$6.26

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$63.81

Value

$33.41

PnL

-$30.4

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$27.35

Value

$33.33

PnL

+$5.98

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$34.4

Value

$32.18

PnL

-$2.23

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$39.52

Value

$32.15

PnL

-$6.74

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$24.05

Value

$26.48

PnL

+$2.43

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$8.07

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$4.78

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$7.84

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$11.36

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$8.63

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 24 top traders (79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.