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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | Haradwaith | ndb1 | UpTheBlues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 41% (587–850, n=1437) | 38% (3421–5699, n=9120) | 63% (1014–591, n=1605) | 49% (20671–21624, n=42295) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.6M | -$473K | $4.8M | $1.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #252 | PM monthly #98 | PM monthly #8 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (29 of 33 open) | 73% (578 of 796 open) | 72% (63 of 87 open) | 68% (30 of 44 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | Weather −6 pts, n=589 | NFL −8 pts, n=147 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 37% of 4101 at avg 40¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 100% of 39731 at avg 67¢, ROI +36% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 56% (won 3% of 2296) | 13% (won 14% of 187) | 7% (won 99% of 2699) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 212) | 4% (won 34% of 173) | 19% (won 39% of 269) | 20% (won 100% of 7974) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 205) | 4% (won 49% of 168) | 23% (won 57% of 328) | 22% (won 100% of 8588) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 36% (won 89% of 1464) | 44% (won 94% of 622) | 52% (won 100% of 20470) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
15 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.