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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankextractive-manateendb1
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)35% (511–968, n=1479)66% (876–458, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$11.0M$44K$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #996PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensus68% (77 of 114 open)45% (14 of 31 open)74% (29 of 39 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—NBA −1 pts, n=322NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%22% of 1570 at avg 21¢, ROI 0%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)71% (won 5% of 1111)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)12% (won 42% of 185)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)8% (won 64% of 130)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)9% (won 91% of 144)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankextractive-manateendb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $77K—No $1.9M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.4K—No $1.4M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $187K—Yes $777K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $265K—Yes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $287K—No $61K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $28K—No $831
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.0KYes $5.6K
Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $129No $3
Will the Houston Texans make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $116Yes $5
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $183K—Yes $324K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $42K—No $94K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $32K—Yes $12K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $34KNo $196—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.5K—No $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $157—No $4.0K
Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
same side · consensus No
—No $1.2KNo $5
Will the Las Vegas Raiders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
same side · consensus No
—No $341No $650