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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | extractive-manatee | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (543–652, n=1195) | 35% (509–961, n=1470) | 66% (876–457, n=1333) | 47% (14154–15703, n=29857) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.2M | $44K | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #996 | PM monthly #23 | PM monthly #18 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 84% (158 of 188 open) | 45% (13 of 29 open) | 72% (91 of 127 open) | 61% (30 of 49 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | NBA −1 pts, n=319 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 22% of 1555 at avg 21¢, ROI 0% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 79% of 58) | 71% (won 5% of 1101) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 200) | 12% (won 42% of 182) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 194) | 8% (won 64% of 130) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 9% (won 91% of 142) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 16 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.