← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| cigarettes | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10105–10685, n=20790) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 47% (13868–15346, n=29214) |
| Consensus PnL | $633K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (303 of 452 open) | 90% (148 of 165 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 67% (4 of 6 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
16 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.