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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| forgotmydinner | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 31% (62–135, n=197) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) | 50% (1028–1027, n=2055) |
| Consensus PnL | $102K | $11.0M | $4.1M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #48 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #69 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (73 of 104 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NBA ±0 pts, n=10 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 20% of 173 at avg 14¢, ROI +19% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 85% (won 7% of 147) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 71% of 7) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 100% of 4) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 100% of 15) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
17 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.