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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
lissartterBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)49% (3363–3512, n=6875)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL-$182K$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #320PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus64% (180 of 281 open)78% (42 of 54 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicNHL −10 pts, n=10—
Settled positions, side won81% of 4796 at avg 65¢, ROI 0%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢19% (won 30% of 894)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢10% (won 74% of 490)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢15% (won 88% of 737)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up56% (won 97% of 2675)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

9 on the same side, 15 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketlissartterBreakTheBank
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $3.0KYes $274K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $4.3KYes $172K
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $472Yes $83K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $159Yes $71K
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.3KYes $65K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.0KYes $52K
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $432Yes $49K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.1KYes $38K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $325Yes $28K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $461Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $44Yes $14K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $539Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.3KYes $9.3K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.0KYes $906
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $199Yes $5.0K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
No $9.6KNo $411K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
same side · consensus No
No $11KNo $253K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $185No $167K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $131No $85K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $6.5KNo $40K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $910No $35K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $46Yes $17K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $151No $16K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $455No $577