Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 18% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 19%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 28 top traders (18%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,230

Combined PnL+$397.81

Up23 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,348

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Down — 18%Up — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 97.2¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$141.52	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 63.5¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$778.09	$785.95	+$7.86	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 43.6¢	$358.95	—	-$358.95	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 84.9¢	$494.43	—	-$494.43	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$207.47	$318.89	+$111.42	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$133.84	—	-$133.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.1¢	$73.63	$318.89	+$245.26
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 75.4¢	$150.03	—	-$150.03	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$181.4	$88.26	-$93.14	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$35.02	$88.26	+$53.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.6¢	$146.38	—	-$146.38
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$87.61	—	-$87.61	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 67.8¢	$111.05	—	-$111.05	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 25.6¢	$34.53	$68.76	+$34.23	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 75.5¢	$56.68	—	-$56.68	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 84¢	$51.66	—	-$51.66	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 59.6¢	$104.84	—	-$104.84	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$44.23	—	-$44.23	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$46.36	—	-$46.36	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$36.38	—	-$36.38	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 83.7¢	$27.48	—	-$27.48	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 83.7¢	$25.07	—	-$25.07	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 38¢	$19	$50	+$31	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 82.5¢	$20.22	—	-$20.22	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$66.4	—	-$61.86	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$86.66	—	-$86.66	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$40.84	—	-$40.84	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
pspspsps5	Downavg 7.9¢	$15.71	$198.91	+$183.2	46% 38677-45770 (84447)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,984.89

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$141.52

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,083.73

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$778.09

Value

$785.95

PnL

+$7.86

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$358.95

Value

—

PnL

-$358.95

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$494.43

Value

—

PnL

-$494.43

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$207.47

Value

$318.89

PnL

+$111.42

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Both legs:

Up$133.8460.6¢-$133.84

Down$73.6323.1¢+$245.26

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$150.03

Value

—

PnL

-$150.03

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$181.4

Value

$88.26

PnL

-$93.14

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Down$35.0239.7¢+$53.24

Up$146.3865.6¢-$146.38

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$87.61

Value

—

PnL

-$87.61

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$111.05

Value

—

PnL

-$111.05

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$34.53

Value

$68.76

PnL

+$34.23

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$56.68

Value

—

PnL

-$56.68

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$51.66

Value

—

PnL

-$51.66

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$104.84

Value

—

PnL

-$104.84

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$44.23

Value

—

PnL

-$44.23

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$46.36

Value

—

PnL

-$46.36

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$36.38

Value

—

PnL

-$36.38

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$27.48

Value

—

PnL

-$27.48

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$25.07

Value

—

PnL

-$25.07

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$19

Value

$50

PnL

+$31

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

—

PnL

-$20.22

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$66.4

Value

—

PnL

-$61.86

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$86.66

Value

—

PnL

-$86.66

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$40.84

Value

—

PnL

-$40.84

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$15.71

Value

$198.91

PnL

+$183.2

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 28 top traders (18%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x663236df...bbcebb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793563200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $5.1K

+$141.52

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.1K

hoodquant

Down — $785.95

ply-pm0

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Up — $0

-$150.03

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

BoneOhio

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$111.05

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