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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Tenebrus7BreakTheBankRN1
Record (consensus markets)75% (2118–688, n=2806)45% (526–640, n=1166)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)
Consensus PnL$131K$10.6M$13.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #841 + pinnedPM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus88% (112 of 127 open)72% (77 of 107 open)55% (77 of 139 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicElections −4 pts, n=382——
Settled positions, side won71% of 3190 at avg 70¢, ROI +1%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 7% of 540)10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2534)
Entries 30–50¢6% (won 37% of 188)36% (won 98% of 192)22% (won 94% of 5497)
Entries 50–70¢10% (won 58% of 325)35% (won 99% of 187)36% (won 99% of 8897)
Entries 70¢ and up67% (won 92% of 2137)20% (won 100% of 107)31% (won 100% of 7736)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 14 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketTenebrus7BreakTheBankRN1
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
—Browns $297KSteelers $1.9K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cardinals $59KCowboys $12K
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $576Yes $56K—
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $480Yes $56K—
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.3KYes $37K—
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $1.4KNo $35K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $493Yes $26K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $262Yes $18K—
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Raiders $17KJets $43
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $494Yes $12K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $495Yes $10K—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.7KYes $1.1K—
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cardinals $3.0KCowboys $1.4K
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $198Yes $855—
Ravens vs. Bills
same side · consensus Bills
—Bills $378KBills $28K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.1KYes $272K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.4KYes $169K—
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $104KRaiders $4.3K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $51KBills $18K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $51KMagic $228
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $24KRaiders $2.7K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $335Yes $16K—
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $13KMagic $161
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $119Yes $5.0K—
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $730No $747—