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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Elias.Thornwell | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 78% (10079–2840, n=12919) | 45% (537–647, n=1184) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 50% (969–959, n=1928) |
| Consensus PnL | $84 | $10.6M | $3.5M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #837 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 91% (362 of 399 open) | 73% (78 of 107 open) | no open consensus position | 50% (1 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 99% of 3321 at avg 90¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 60% of 98) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 96% of 98) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 98% of 168) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 89% (won 100% of 2957) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.