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PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
xtxpleasecallmeBreakTheBank00gringo00beachboy4
Record (consensus markets)24% (6540–20498, n=27038)45% (542–652, n=1194)75% (6–2, n=8)68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL$101K$10.6M$3.5M$5.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #35 + pinnedPM monthly #1was PM monthly #19was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus49% (139 of 285 open)90% (147 of 164 open)no open consensus position100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topicMLB −4 pts, n=51——NBA −6 pts, n=93
Settled positions, side won35% of 6676 at avg 28¢, ROI +9%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢67% (won 9% of 4479)10% (won 82% of 56)0%3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢8% (won 67% of 503)36% (won 98% of 198)0%30% (won 57% of 63)
Entries 50–70¢7% (won 89% of 439)35% (won 99% of 191)100% (won 86% of 7)54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 99% of 1255)19% (won 100% of 107)0%14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

32 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketxtxpleasecallmeBreakTheBank00gringo00beachboy4
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $7No $477——
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
No $200No $253K——
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $40Yes $85K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $28Yes $52K——
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
Yes $51Yes $32K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14Yes $22K——
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $8Yes $12K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $12K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7Yes $11K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $11K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $9.3K——
Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $9.3K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $7.2K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $7.2K——
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $107Yes $6.8K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $6.8K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $6.4K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $5.7K——
Will Republicans win Alaska and Maine, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $5.7K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $5.0K——
Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $4.9K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $4.7K——
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $152——Yes $4.2K
Will Republicans win Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $3.6K——
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.2K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Kansas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.1K——
Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5Yes $721——