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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
SnapElectionAvoiderRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)52% (905–844, n=1749)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$207K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #391 + pinnedPM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus66% (73 of 111 open)58% (85 of 147 open)72% (79 of 109 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicCrypto −26 pts, n=16——
Settled positions, side won53% of 1671 at avg 48¢, ROI +2%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢42% (won 14% of 706)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢10% (won 45% of 162)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢11% (won 69% of 177)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up37% (won 94% of 626)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

37 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketSnapElectionAvoiderRN1BreakTheBank
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
—Steelers $1.9KBrowns $297K
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
—Steelers $6.0KBrowns $255K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $12KCardinals $59K
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Jets $109Raiders $17K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Ravens vs. Bills
same side · consensus Bills
—Bills $22KBills $378K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $4.3KRaiders $104K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $18KBills $51K
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $998—Yes $56K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $228Magic $51K
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $2.7KRaiders $24K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $29—Yes $26K
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.2K—Yes $24K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
—Jaguars $1.1KJaguars $20K
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $340—Yes $19K
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $538—Yes $18K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $224—Yes $18K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $31—Yes $16K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $400—Yes $15K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $376—Yes $14K
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $161Magic $13K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $412—Yes $13K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $97—Yes $13K
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $153—Yes $12K
Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $338—Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $151—Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $101—Yes $11K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $141—Yes $10K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $548—Yes $9.3K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus No
Yes $393—Yes $8.6K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus No
Yes $313—Yes $8.6K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $271—Yes $6.4K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $307—Yes $5.7K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $233—Yes $5.0K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus No
Yes $168—Yes $4.4K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $80—Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $79—Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $78—Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $74—Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Maine?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $64—Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $27—Yes $2.1K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus No
Yes $18—Yes $41